Bloomberg (May 19)
“‘Sell America’ is back as Moody’s pushes 30-year yield to 5%.” Just a week after traders “had to react quickly to weekend news of an improvement in trade relations between the US and China,” they will again have to paddle hard, but this time in the opposite direction. Rising Treasury yields are also expected to “complicate the government’s ability to cut back by running up its interest payments, while also threatening to weaken the economy by forcing up rates on loans such as mortgages and credit cards.”
Tags: 5%, China, Economy, Government, Interest payments, Loans, Moody, Mortgages, Rates, Sell America, Threatening, Traders, Treasury yields, U.S., Weaken
Detroit Free Press (May 17)
“As car buyers rush to get in front of tariffs — which are widely expected to boost sticker prices — the flood of demand has been pushing new vehicle prices ever higher, with the trend unlikely to stop any time soon.” The average new vehicle sales price “in April surged 2.5% to $48,699 compared with March. Prices rose 1.1% compared with April 2024,” making it “the strongest April sales since 2021.”
Tags: $48, 2.5%, 2021, 699 Rose, April, Boost, Car buyers, Demand, Flood, Higher, New vehicle, Prices, Rush, Sticker prices, Strongest April, Surged, Tariffs
Market Watch (May 17)
“President Donald Trump’s move to defuse an ugly trade war with China not only sparked a massive stock-market rally but also drove down the chances of a recession — for now.” Though it’s a welcome sign of relief, numerous obstacles remain. Nobody can rest assured. “Ongoing trade wars have not gone away, for one thing. Trump could change his mind or the U.S. could fail to strike more economic-friendly deals with China, after that 90-day pause, and other countries.” Moreover, the uncertainty has “made households and business hesitant to spend, hire and invest. Confidence has plunged in the past few months, and anxiety is unlikely to fade quickly.” U.S. growth remains likely “to taper off sharply this year.”
Tags: 90-day pause, China, Confidence, Deals, Defuse, Hire, Households, Invest, Obstacles, Recession, Relief, Spend, Stock-market rally, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Ugly, Uncertainty
Reuters (May 15)
“Equity investors took comfort from the lower duty rates, pushing the S&P 500 Index up 5% this week, to higher than where it started the year. Business leaders are clearly less impressed. Sustained gloom from industry titans like Walmart will keep pressure on the president to reconsider his own pricing power.” Though Walmart “is trying to hold the line on food even as the cost of bananas, coffee, avocados and flowers increases,” the retailer disclosed this week that “tariffs would force it to raise prices.”
Tags: Business leaders, Cost, Duty rates, Equity, Food, Gloom, Industry titans, Investors, Pressure, Pricing power, Raise prices, Reconsider, S&P 500, Tariffs, Walmart
Washington Post (May 14)
Plastic production is estimated to create roughly 5% “of all greenhouse gas emissions… more than all shipping or the entire airline industry.” But that estimate only “accounts for gases released when companies drill for oil and gas, transport it to refineries, turn it into plastic and mold it into products.” It ignores factors such as “how microplastics in the ocean and soil disrupt the natural cycles that pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and cool the planet.” Though “scientists have long known that making plastic warms the planet,” plastic may ultimately “be heating the Earth even more than we realized.”
Tags: 5%, Airline industry, Atmosphere, CO2, Disrupt, Drill, Gas, GHG emissions, Microplastics, Mold, Natural cycles, Ocean, Oil, Plastic, Production, Products, Refineries, Scientists, Shipping, Soil, Transport
Wall Street Journal (May 13)
“Economist Burton Malkiel might have called the stock market ‘a random walk,’ but investors could at least use earnings guidance by companies as road signs. Now they are largely walking blind.” With on-again, off-again tariffs, “nobody knows what the economy will look like in a few months’ time.” Some companies are leaning heavily on assumptions. “Others, such as General Motors, PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble, have lowered targets, while Volkswagen excluded tariffs from its outlook. United Airlines, creatively, offered one scenario for a stable environment and another for a recession.” Other companies have simply thrown in the towel. “Ford, Jeep-owner Stellantis, Delta Air Lines, and UPS took another route, scrapping their 2025 guidance altogether.”
Tags: Assumptions, Blind, Delta Air Lines, Earnings guidance, Economist, Economy, Ford, GM, Investors, Malkiel, Outlook, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Random walk, Recession, Scenario, Stable, Stellantis, Stock market, Targets, Tariffs, United Airlines, Volkswagen
The Times (May 13)
“The United States is expected to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending by the end of the year.” According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) “reports of tourists being stopped at the border, visa detentions, a tariff war waged by the Trump administration and a higher exchange rate” are all factors in what they estimate will reduce 2025 spending by foreign tourists in the U.S. to $169 billion, “down 7 per cent from $181 billion last year and 22 per cent from the peak before the pandemic.”
Tags: $12.5 billion, $169 billion, 2025, Border, Exchange rate, International travel, Pandemic, Reduce, Spending, Tariff war, Tourists, Trump, U.S., Visa detentions, WTTC
Bloomberg (May 12)
“Xi Jinping’s decision to stand his ground against Donald Trump could hardly have gone any better for the Chinese leader…. The Trump administration’s retreat from sky-high tariffs wouldn’t have occurred if China hadn’t responded so forcefully, not only with retaliatory duties but also export controls and other steps.”
Tags: China, Decision, Duties, Export controls, Forcefully, Leader, Responded, Retaliatory, Retreat, Sky-high tariffs, Trump, U.S., Xi
Barron’s (May 12)
“The Nasdaq Composite entered a new bull market on Monday as the stock market surged after the U.S. and China agreed to ease back tariffs for 90 days. The tech-heavy index rallied 4.4%, closing more than 20% above its April 8 low to exit the bear market that began on April 4.” That wasn’t the only good news. “The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,161 points, or 2.8%, closing more than 10% above its April 8 low to exit a technical correction. The S&P 500 rallied 3.3%.”
Tags: Bear market, Bull market, China, Dow Jones, Ease, Nasdaq, Rallied, S&P 500, Stocks, Surged, Tariffs, Tech-heavy, Technical correction, U.S.
South China Morning Post (May 9)
“Hong Kong must wake up to the dangers of US port and shipping threats “ While the world obsesses about Donald Trump’s tariffs, “a quieter but potentially more lasting confrontation is taking shape that could remake global trade infrastructure.” The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) recently “concluded an investigation into China’s shipbuilding and maritime sectors” and “its impact on the global trade architecture could be just as profound. If Hong Kong is “to remain a serious player on the international stage, we must respond with urgency, clarity and conviction” to measures that could include “per-voyage service fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-controlled vessels calling at US ports, as well as proposed tariffs on Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes and other key port equipment” while requiring that LNG carriers be US-built, “phasing out Chinese-made ships from the trade.”
Tags: China, Confrontation, Dangers, Global trade, Hong Kong, Infrastructure, Maritime, Per-voyage service fees, Port, Ship-to-shore cranes, Shipbuilding, Shipping threats, Tariffs, Trade Representative, Trump, U.S.
