MarketWatch (July 30)
“One of the wildest months in recent memory for the U.S. stock market is ending on yet another remarkable note: A highflying hedge fund run by an AI wunderkind in his mid-20s has apparently just been carried out on a stretcher.” Before offloading “the bulk of its public-equity portfolio after suffering heavy losses over the past month,” Situational Awareness “had posted dazzling returns by using leverage to bet on AI-related stocks, reportedly tallying a more than 2,000% gain since its launch in September 2024.”
Tags: AI, Bet, Dazzling, Gain, Hedge-fund, Leverage, Losses, Market, Offloading, Public-equity portfolio, Remarkable, Returns, Situational Awareness, Stocks, Stretcher, U.S., Wildest, Wunderkind
Time (July 16)
“Iran’s return to conflict is best read as a calculated gamble…. Above all, Tehran’s leadership fears a staged unwinding of its leverage. Once it stops threatening shipping and restrains its regional partners, those tools become difficult to recover.” While Iran may be “running a familiar playbook of escalating to deescalate” and may have an “accurate reading” of President Donald Trump’s desire “to avoid rising energy prices, American casualties, and another open ended war in the Middle East;” there’s less certainty about how that deescalation will come about. “There is no formal consensus… and no faction willing to move first on anything that could be portrayed as surrendering leverage, legitimizing the bombing campaign, or handing Trump a clear victory.”
Tags: Calculated, Casualties, Certainty, Conflict, Deescalate, Energy prices, Escalating, Fears, Iran, Leadership, Legitimizing, Leverage, Middle East, Recover, Shipping, Threatening, Tools, Trump, War
New York Times (May 8)
“A grinding war in Iran has so severely drained American firepower that Chinese analysts are openly questioning Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan. That shifting calculus threatens to undercut President Trump’s leverage in his high-stakes summit next week with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.”
Tags: Ability, Analysts, China, Defend, Drained, Firepower, Grinding, High stakes, Iran, Leverage, Questioning, Summit, Taiwan, Threatens, Trump, U.S., Undercut, War
CNN (January 15)
“For China, the record $1.2 trillion annual trade surplus its authorities reported Wednesday is resounding proof of the resilience of its economy in the face of US trade friction.” The record surplus “also tells another story: one of the far-reaching potential for China’s massive export engine to reshape the global economy – and help Beijing win more leverage in its rivalry with the United States.”
Tags: $1.2 trillion, China, Economy, Export engine, Friction, Global economy, Leverage, Potential, Proof, Record, Resilience, Trade surplus, U.S.
Bloomberg (September 19)
“For the first time since at least the 1990s, China hasn’t bought any US soybeans at the start of the export season, a sign that Beijing is once again using agriculture as leverage in its trade fight with Washington.” In 2024, the US supplied “a fifth of China’s soybean imports, worth more than $12 billion, and accounting for over half of total US soy export value.” This year, “US farmers, flush with bumper harvests, are coping with prices near the lowest levels in years.”
Tags: $12 billion, 1990s, 2024, Agriculture, Bumper harvests, China, Export season, Leverage, Prices, Soybeans, Trade fight, U.S., Washington
South China Morning Post (July 4)
“Beijing’s decision to impose export controls on critical raw materials used in manufacturing semiconductors, communication equipment and solar panels could complicate the US-led efforts to shift critical supply chains away from China.” Its latest move appears to seek “leverage in negotiations with Washington over access to core technology.”
Tags: China, Communication equipment, Core technology, Critical, Export controls, Impose, Leverage, Manufacturing, Negotiations, Raw materials, Semiconductors, Solar panels, Supply chains
Washington Post (October 17)
“While Americans are leaving their jobs at staggering rates — a record 4.3 million quit in August alone — hundreds of thousands of workers with similar grievances about wages, benefits and quality of life are…choosing to dig in and fight.” Empowered by the Great Resignation, union action is up sharply in 2021. “Workers are now harder to replace, especially while many companies are scrambling to meet heightened demand for their products and manage hobbled supply chains. That has given unions new leverage, and made striking less risky.”
Tags: Benefits, Demand, Great Resignation, Grievances, Jobs, Leverage, Quality of life, Risky, Scrambling, Staggering, Striking, Supply chains, U.S., Unions, Wages, Workers
Seeking Alpha (April 6)
Recovery is not just a matter of overcoming the virus. In fact, the world faces an overhanging economic challenge. “We’re likely in the later stages of a global debt supercycle. The sheer amount of debt in the world makes temporary income disruptions a lot more financially impactful than they would be in a system with less leverage. As of 2019, global debt surpassed $250 trillion, which is more than 250% of the world’s GDP.”
Tags: Disruptions, Economic challenge, Global debt, Income, Leverage, Recovery, Supercycle, Virus
Bloomberg (October 1)
“Stocks of the so-called sogo shosha, the groups that drove Japan’s postwar export success—the likes of Itochu Corp., Marubeni Corp. and Mitsubishi Corp.—have rallied as much as 36 percent over the last year, outpacing the race to a three-decade high by the broad Topix Index. The trading companies’ free cash-flow levels are above those reached in their heyday, and their leverage much lower.”
Tags: Export, FCF, Itochu, Japan, Leverage, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Outpacing, Postwar, Rallied, Sogo shosha, Success, Topix
South China Morning Post (August 3)
“China has just ceded its four-year title as the world’s second-largest stock market to Japan, as an intensifying trade spat with the US and its campaign to reduce leverage weighed on equities.”
Tags: China, Equities, Japan, Leverage, Second-largest, Stock market, Trade spat, U.S., World
