Bloomberg (February 2)
“The US president’s stance toward the greenback may help Xi Jinping realize his dream of making the yuan a global reserve currency.” At the top of President Xi’s wish “list is a ‘powerful currency’ with global-reserve status that punches its weight in international trade and foreign-exchange markets.” China now looks “well positioned to benefit from any long-term shift away from the dollar.” Despite Trump’s America First bluster, his “disruptive policies may be playing into the hands of rivals like China, who are only too eager to exploit US weakness wherever they see an opening.”
Tags: America first, Disruptive policies, Dollar, Exploit, Forex, Global reserve currency, Greenback, International trade, Powerful, President, U.S., Xi, Yuan
Bloomberg (October 10)
“Betting against the dollar has been the dominant trade this year in the $9.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, but the wager is starting to stumble. The world’s primary reserve currency is around a two-month high even as the US government shutdown drags on, and traders in Asia and Europe say hedge funds are adding options bets that the rebound versus most major peers will extend into year-end.”
Tags: $9.6 trillion, Asia, Dollar, Dominant, Forex, Government, Hedge funds, Market, Options bets, Rebound, Reserve currency, Shutdown, Stumble, Trade, Traders, Two-month high, U.S.
The Economist (May 4)
“It is easy for investors to lose a fortune in the financial markets—and even easier for governments.” When Japan tried to prop up the yen in 2022, the nation “spent more than $60bn of its foreign-exchange reserves,” but supporting a currency “is expensive and futile.” Since breaking the ¥160/$1 barrier, there are rumors of another intervention. As long as the giant interest rate gap exists with the U.S., Japan would be “wrong to try to prop up the yen.”
Tags: $60bn, ¥160/$1, 2022, Currency, Expensive, Financial markets, Forex, Futile, Governments, Interest rate, Intervention, Investors, Japan, Reserves, Yen
Market Insider (September 30)
“Japan and Korea have dumped billions of dollars into the foreign exchange market to prop up” their currencies. Nevertheless, “the dollar has surged 26% against the yen and has risen 21% versus the won.” The yen and won are hardly unique. “Both developed and emerging market economies, have slumped against the dollar,” but both currencies “have also been hurt by trade deficit concerns” as their “economies are importers of oil.”
Tags: Currencies, Developed, Dollars, Economies, Emerging, Forex, Importers, Japan, Korea, Market, Oil, Prop up, Slumped, Surged, Trade deficit, Won, Yen
Bloomberg (June 20)
“Brexit stresses are seeping into virtually every corner of the global foreign-exchange market. Of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, all but three have seen a jump in the cost to hedge against big declines.” The Japanese yen Brazilian real and Swiss frank are the three exceptions.
Tags: Brazil, Brexit, Cost, Currencies, Declines, Forex, Hedge, Japan, Markets, Real, Switzerland, Yen
Institutional Investor (February Issue)
“Talk of currency wars is once again in the air, making foreign exchange potentially a major component of investment returns.” Last year, “the dollar underperformed all major currencies except the yen.” In 2013, the Norwegian krone, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are likely to benefit if the dollar’s slide continues.
Tags: Australia, Currency, Dollar, Forex, Investment, Krone, New Zealand, Norway, U.S., Yen
Institutional Investor (January 31)
“A platform war is intensifying in the global foreign exchange market, with more than half a dozen entrants jumping into the space in the past few months. It’s still too early to know which platforms will emerge as winners, but the proliferation of venues is already sparking declines in already-low trading costs, with banks earning less on each trade, in a situation similar to what’s happened in equity markets over the past decade. One banker estimates that revenue per trade has dropped by about 9 percent over the past year through a narrowing of bid-offer spreads.”
Financial Times (December 3)
The European Central Bank (ECB) wants “to reduce the City’s role as an offshore centre doing euro-denominated business…. A substantial clawback would hurt the City, which accounts for more than a third of all wholesale financial business in the EU and 40 per cent of global foreign exchange trading in the single currency. Quite how easily this activity could be repatriated by ECB fiat remains to be seen, as location, language and expertise also count for much in markets.”
Tags: Currency trading, ECB, EU, Forex, London
Financial Times (March 6)
In times of trouble, investors flock to the U.S. dollar. Or did. Despite turbulence in the Mideast, the Financial Times reports, “Hedge funds and forex dealers are betting record amounts against the dollar, reflecting a growing belief that the US currency has lost its haven appeal and that eurozone interest rates will soon rise.”
