Futurism (September 14)
AI hallucinations are “a major problem plaguing the entire industry, greatly undercutting the usefulness of the tech.” The problem appears to be “getting worse as AI models get more capable.” Some experts argue there is no way around the problem as “hallucinations are intrinsic to the tech itself” and that large language models (LLMs) have hit their limits. However, OpenAI believes it has stumbled on the problem and a relatively easy fix. Its researchers posit that LLMs “hallucinate because when they’re being created, they’re incentivized to guess rather than admit they simply don’t know the answer,” as conventional scoring is binary, which rewards correct guesses and penalizes honest admissions of uncertainty. Instead, they believe you can “penalize confident errors more than you penalize uncertainty, and give partial credit for appropriate expressions of uncertainty.”
Tags: AI, AI models, Binary, Capable, Conventional, Experts, Guess, Hallucinations, Incentivized, Intrinsic, LLMs, Researchers, Rewards, Scoring, Tech, Undercutting, Usefulness
Washington Post (June 25)
“Governments around the world are scrambling for ways, often at great fiscal cost, to slow or even reverse their baby busts. From cash incentives to paid leave, the results have been disappointing.” They would do better to quit fighting and focus on adaptation. After 17 years of population decline, Japan “now offers a surprisingly hopeful counter that an aging economy can still offer growth and prosperity.” Recent analysis by Goldman Sachs found that in Japan “the demographic decline that once drained vitality is now creating a ‘virtuous cycle’ of tightening labor markets, increased worker bargaining power and more investment in productivity-enhancing tech. These trends are helping prop up the economy even as it weathers a shock from the U.S.-led trade war.”
Tags: Adaptation, Aging economy, Baby busts, Cash incentives, Cost, Demographic decline, Goldman Sachs, Governments, Growth, Investment, Labor markets, Paid leave, Population, Prosperity, Reverse, Scrambling, Tech, Virtuous cycle
Barron’s (June 23 Issue)
“Non-GAAP numbers were to be used judiciously to explain extenuating or extraordinary circumstances, like a factory fire or the sale of a division.” Instead, they’ve become endemic. “For fiscal 2024, some 351 companies in the S&P 500 index, or 71%, reported either non-GAAP net income or non-GAAP earnings per share.” Of those, 89% of the adjustments made “their results look better” and the difference can be vast. “Intel had the biggest adjustment last year.” With “a GAAP loss of $19.2 billion” the chipmaker “categorized $18.6 billion as nonrecurring, so it reported a non-GAAP loss of $600 million.” And the sleight of hand can be performed year after year. For example, Oracle “has booked a restructuring charge every year for the past five years.” Especially in tech and healthcare, “non-GAAP numbers are now more accepted than the ‘generally accepted’ ones.”
Tags: Adjustments, Endemic, EPS, Extenuating, Extraordinary circumstances, Factory fire, Healthcare, Intel, Loss, Net income, Non-GAAP, Nonrecurring, Oracle, Restructuring, Results, S&P 500, Tech
Wall Street Journal (February 17)
“The new plan for western companies is ABC: ‘Anything But China.’” Many multinationals had previously tried to correct their overreliance on Chinese suppliers through a “‘China Plus 1’ strategy of augmenting China-based suppliers with those in other countries.” Rising tensions between the U.S. and China are now prompting many tech businesses to instead adopt the ABC strategy. They are “accelerating moves to shift production out of China and look for suppliers elsewhere, signifying a global tech world that is increasingly bifurcated between the two powers.”
Tags: ‘Anything But China, ABC strategy, Bifurcated, China Plus 1, Companies, Multinationals, Overreliance, Production, Suppliers, Tech, Tensions, U.S., Western
The Economist (January 2)
“Already things have turned nasty. Donald Trump has not even got to the White House, and his raucous court of advisers have rounded on each other.” This marks only the beginning of “a clash of cultures” as tech invades Washington. Tech’s “worldview is strikingly at odds with the maga movement.” Yet, it is possible that “out of Trumpian chaos and contradiction, something good might just emerge.“
Tags: Advisers, Chaos, Clash of cultures, Contradiction, Maga, Nasty, Raucous, Tech, Trump, Washington, White House, Worldview
Financial Times (December 3)
“America’s economy is soaring ahead of its rivals,” and its “outperformance is rooted in long-term productivity growth that is the envy of the developed world.” Many of these productivity gains are coming from tech investments. “China is the only other large economy making significant strides in tech R&D spending…. the amount of venture capital invested in AI in China is now the second highest globally after the US.”
Tags: AI, China, Developed world, Economy, Envy, Investments, Outperformance, Productivity growth, R&D spending, Rivals, Soaring, Tech, U.S., VC
Bloomberg (December 1)
“For all the bullish milestones notched by November’s big market surge, recent history offers Wall Street a lesson in caution. Time and time again, speculation breaks out that the Federal Reserve is poised to ease monetary policy soon enough — spurring even cautious investors to erupt in a spasm of cross-asset buying. Stocks jump, bond yields fall, and a dash ensues among equity speculators into shady corners encompassing everything from meme fliers to crypto and profitless tech.”
Tags: Bonds, Bullish, Caution, Cautious, Cross-asset buying, Crypto, Fed, Investors, Market surge, Monetary policy, November, Speculation, Stocks, Tech, Wall Street, Yields
Institutional Investor (April 6)
“Venture capital activity has all but dried up for the hedge funds (and/or their VC arms) that used to be among the most active in the private market for tech, internet, and new economy companies.”
Tags: Active, Dried up, Hedge funds, Internet, New economy, Private market, Tech, Venture-capital
Financial Times (February 28)
Norway’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, “is voting against Apple’s pay policies, including $99mn in salary and bonuses for chief executive Tim Cook, part of a growing shareholder backlash against remuneration at the tech giant.” The funds rationale includes the belief that “a substantial part of annual pay should be provided in shares that are locked in for five to 10 years.”
Tags: Apple, Backlash, Bonuses, Cook, Fund, Norway, Pay policies, Remuneration, Salary, Shareholder, Sovereign wealth, Tech, Voting
CNN (February 3)
“Meta Platforms, the company formerly known as Facebook, just had its worst trading day in its history as a public company,” dropping $240 billion or 26% of its market cap. “The eye-popping drop in value is a reminder of just how massive the tech giant really is. Meta’s market cap has now declined by an amount that is greater than the total valuation of most public companies.”
Tags: $240 billion, Drop, Eye-popping, Facebook, Giant, Market-cap, Massive, Meta Platforms, Tech, Trading, Value, Worst
