Bloomberg (October 4)
As Middle East crude flows return to near-normal levels, “global prices remain stuck above $100, roughly 40% higher than when the conflict began.” The elevated prices are “sending shock waves through the global economy, feeding inflation and squeezing industries and consumers alike,” but rapid improvement is unlikely. “A confluence of problems” now keeps prices high:” depleted inventories and reserves that need to be replaced, fears the “unresolved war could reignite,” the drastically increased cost of transit, and elsewhere Russia’s war with Ukraine has curtailed other supplies.
Tags: 100, 40% higher, Conflict, Confluence, Consumers, Cost, Crude, Depleted inventories, Fears, Global economy, Industries, Inflation, Middle East, Reignite, Reserves, Russia, Shock waves, Transit, War
Barron’s (June 5)
“Markets have soared toward the rare air last breathed by investors in the mid-1980s, but the stalling tech rally is bringing stocks back down to Earth.” It was “a series of quarterly updates on Wednesday that punctured a hole in the AI trade that has powered markets higher since the end of March.” The “market’s angst” was compounded by “stubbornly high Treasury yields, the lack of an agreement on ending the U.S. war with Iran, and a near 10% gain for global crude prices since last Friday’s close.”
Tags: 1980s, AI trade, Angst, Crude, Investors, Iran, Markets, Punctured, Quarterly updates, Rare air, Soared, Stalling, Stocks, Tech rally, Treasury yields, U.S., War
OilPrice.com (November 24)
“The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast.” That is, however, beyond current consensus. “Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.”
Tags: $30, $40, 2027, Analysts, Benchmark, Brent, Consensus, Crude, Fears, Forecast, Glut, Investment banks, JP Morgan, Market, Oil prices
Barron’s (June 19)
“The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has sent oil prices higher over the past few days. If history is anything to go by, the pressure it’s putting on global energy costs will fade before too long.” Immediate fears of a shortage “are usually exaggerated–the risk that geopolitical events create a shortage of crude almost never materialize, even though that’s always the first thing on traders’ minds.”
Tags: Conflict, Crude, Energy costs, Escalating, Exaggerated, Fears, Geopolitical events, History, Iran, Israel, Oil prices, Pressure, Risk, Shortage, Traders
New York Times (October 3)
“Markets are on edge about the risk of another oil shock. The price of crude has been relatively stable over the past year, apart from brief spikes.” Now, however, concern is focused on the potential “economic cost of a new war in the Middle East.” Estimates of the potential cost are wide-ranging and speculative, but “an escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran could cause oil prices to spike and send a chill through the global economy.”
Tags: Chill, Crude, Economic cost, Escalation, Fighting, Iran, Israel, Markets, Middle East, Oil prices, Oil shock, Risk, Speculative, Spikes, Stable, War
Bloomberg (August 27)
“Wall Street is beginning to sour on the outlook for crude next year, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley lowering price forecasts as global supplies increase, including potentially from OPEC+.” Both banks “now foresee global benchmark Brent averaging less than $80” and expect “prices trending lower over the 12 months.”
Tags: Benchmark, Brent, Crude, Forecasts, Global supplies, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, OPEC, Outlook, Sour, Wall Street
Washington Post (March 21)
“The aim of setting the cap on Russian crude at $60, roughly 20 percent below the main international benchmark price, was to whittle away at Russia’s cash hoard while still providing it with sufficient incentive to maintain exports and keep global oil markets stable. It is now time to lower the Western cap further, in increments, to $40 per barrel or less.”
Tags: $40, $60, Aim, Barrel, Benchmark, Cap, Crude, Exports, Incentive, Oil markets, Russia, Stable, Sufficient, Western
Reuters (June 12)
“Oil’s 2020 roller coaster is on a new downward section of track. After respectively falling below $20 a barrel and turning negative in April, Brent and U.S. crude prices recovered to $40 a barrel amid coordinated supply cuts. Fresh falls in recent days make that level look more like a ceiling.”
Tags: Barrel, Brent, Ceiling, Crude, Downward, Oil, Recovered, Roller coaster, Supply cuts, U.S.
Reuters (September 16)
“The last thing the slowing world economy needs is a big and unexpected disruption in oil output.” The drone attacks “took out roughly half of Saudi Arabia’s crude output appear to fit that bill. But even fragile global growth can probably withstand this first cut.” However, if “sustained disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supply–or anything that heightens the risk of them–will buoy crude. That will deliver the deepest cut to growth.”
Tags: Crude, Crude output, Disruption, Drone attacks, Economy, Fragile, Growth, Middle East, Oil, Output, Risk, Saudi Arabia, Supply, Unexpected
Reuters (March 27)
Oil prices are holding firm, “supported by concerns that tensions in the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions, although further rises expected in U.S. crude output loomed over markets.”
Tags: Crude, Firm, Middle East, Oil, Output, Prices, Supply disruptions, Tensions, U.S.
