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Bloomberg (April 8)

2023/ 04/ 10 by jd in Global News

“Almost $1.5 trillion of US commercial real estate debt comes due for repayment before the end of 2025. The big question facing those borrowers is who’s going to lend to them?” Morgan Stanley has estimated “office and retail property valuations could fall as much as 40% from peak to trough, increasing the risk of defaults.” Regional banks are now skittish about lending and “the wall of debt is set to get worse before it gets better.”

 

Bloomberg (December 13)

2022/ 12/ 14 by jd in Global News

“A sharp increase in China’s Covid infections following an abrupt end to strict pandemic control measures suggests investors may need to pare back on reopening trades, according to Morgan Stanley.”

 

Financial Times (June 22)

2021/ 06/ 22 by jd in Global News

Wall Street banks “have been at the forefront of the push to convince workers to return to the office.” In the strictest vaccination policy yet, “Morgan Stanley employees and clients who have not received their Covid-19 vaccine will be barred from entering the bank’s New York offices.”

 

Investment Week (July 17)

2019/ 07/ 19 by jd in Global News

“A ‘no deal’ Brexit could result in sterling falling to parity with the dollar,” according to Morgan Stanley. “Exiting the European Union without a deal looks increasingly likely.” In a “worst-case scenario” the pound, currently at $1.24, could plunge roughly 19% “to historic lows of $1-$1.10.”

 

Barron’s (July 8)

2019/ 07/ 09 by jd in Global News

“Worried that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself? You’re not the only one. Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets doesn’t see much upside in stocks these days, resulting in his decision to cut the firm’s allocation on global equities to underweight from equal-weight.”

 

Institutional Investor (June 18)

2018/ 06/ 21 by jd in Global News

“Morgan Stanley remains undefeated in its ability to grant investors access to Asian companies—but perhaps not for much longer.” The firm has bagged Institutional Investor’s top spot since 2013, but this year “the New York-based bank tied for first with rival UBS Group, which has been gradually moving up the roster from its fourth-place debut five years ago.”

 

Barron’s (January 29)

2018/ 01/ 31 by jd in Global News

“Interest rates and volatility have been so low for so long that what was once abnormal is starting to look normal,” leading investment banks to adopt different approaches. Goldman has maintained its trading unit, “which lives or dies on volatility and which sealed Goldman’s reputation as the elite firm on Wall Street,” even though its revenue “has been reduced to crumbs.” In contrast, Morgan Stanley slashed the head count at its trading unit and has seen its market value surpass Goldman’s. But this could prove short-lived. “When trading conditions improve,” revenue from fixed income currency and commodities (FICC) “could bounce back quickly. No one else is as poised as Goldman to profit.”

 

Bloomberg (May 11)

2017/ 05/ 14 by jd in Global News

“It’s not making headlines yet, but wages in Japan are rising the fastest in decades, in a shift that’s poised to divide the nation’s companies — and their stocks — into winners and losers…. Consumer-focused sectors with low salary bills as a percentage of revenue are best positioned. Logistics and some health-care companies will be most negatively impacted,” according to a report from Morgan Stanley.

 

Bloomberg (December 1)

2015/ 12/ 01 by jd in Global News

Not everyone is in line with the consensus view that the yen will weaken to 126 per dollar by the end of 2016. Among the most bullish, Morgan Stanley “expects Japan’s currency to strengthen to 115 against the greenback.” Factors behind this forecast include the historic weakness of the yen, the need for Japanese pension funds to repatriate money, improvement in Japan’s economy and a general overestimation of the BOJ’s commitment to monetary easing.

 

Institutional Investor (April 24)

2014/ 04/ 26 by jd in Global News

To strengthen their balance sheets, large banks (including Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Barclays) have been reducing their commodities businesses, mainly through sales to independent trading companies. With these sales “to smaller players, conflicts of interest remain a potential problem” and nobody’s sure whether new problems will accompany this major shift. Given the skinnier balance sheets of the new players, market liquidity could conceivably suffer. In addition, “concerns abound that the underlying problems that have traditionally beset the commodities markets are simply being pushed onto a new and less tightly regulated set of actors.”

 

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