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CNN (December 7)

2020/ 12/ 08 by jd in Global News

“With days left to reach a trade deal with the European Union, the stakes have never been higher.” Boris Johnson “will have to decide whether sticking to his guns on national sovereignty… makes real-world sense given the economic price the United Kingdom will pay if negotiations fail.” In a no-deal exit “UK companies, already reeling from the pandemic, would lose tariff-free, quota-free access to a market of 450 million consumers that is currently the destination for 43% of British exports.”

 

Washington Post (October 16)

2019/ 10/ 16 by jd in Global News

A no-deal Brexit has “been compared to “downshifting a car at full speed from fifth gear to first.” The U.K. could lose “continuity of trade relations with many of the 71 nations that have forged preferential trade agreements with the EU.” To date, the U.K. has secured continuity agreements with only about a dozen of these countries and it remains to be seen whether sufficient customs infrastructure will be in place. “Large U.K. businesses like engine-maker Rolls Royce Holdings Plc and brewer Heineken NV have outlined plans to hoard supplies in case a tumultuous Brexit chokes just-in-time supply chains and creates backlogs at ports.”

 

The Guardian (September 12)

2019/ 09/ 13 by jd in Global News

“Here the issue… is that a British prime minister persists in asserting the impossible. He demands that Britain leave the European single market but with a gaping hole in its border, in Ireland. He wants a border and no border.” A no-deal Brexit would cause “chaos” in a worst case scenario, but “in Ireland it is physically impossible.”

 

Washington Post (September 3)

2019/ 09/ 04 by jd in Global News

“Prime Minister Boris Johnson, under public assault for his scheme to suspend Parliament to push through a no-deal Brexit, has now lost his majority.” This is typical of the “right-wing populist canard,” which works best in the minority. “Being snake oil salesmen and anti-government nihilists,” they “don’t know how to fix much of anything, and after all the huffing and puffing, the public gets the idea the populist cult leader is an incompetent charlatan.” While in this case it’s Johnson, Trump’s turn will come. “The lessons here for the United States are not hard to discern.”

 

The Economist (August 31)

2019/ 09/ 01 by jd in Global News

“The sense of inevitability about no-deal, cultivated by the hardliners advising Mr Johnson, is bogus. The EU is against such an outcome; most Britons oppose it; Parliament has already voted against the idea. Those MPs determined to stop no-deal have been divided and unfocused. When they return to work next week after their uneasy summer recess, they will have a fleeting chance to avert this unwanted national calamity. Mr Johnson’s actions this week have made clear why they must seize it.”

 

Investment Week (July 17)

2019/ 07/ 19 by jd in Global News

“A ‘no deal’ Brexit could result in sterling falling to parity with the dollar,” according to Morgan Stanley. “Exiting the European Union without a deal looks increasingly likely.” In a “worst-case scenario” the pound, currently at $1.24, could plunge roughly 19% “to historic lows of $1-$1.10.”

 

The Guardian (July 9)

2019/ 07/ 11 by jd in Global News

“The pound has come under fresh selling pressure amid rising fears over the strength of the British economy as no-deal Brexit looms,” tumbling to its lowest sustained level in over two years. “The latest sell-off comes at a time of a stalling UK economy, as the boost from stockpiling before the original Brexit deadline begins to fade” and fears grow that “the economy probably contracted in the three months to June, raising fears of a technical recession.”

 

Financial Times (June 25)

2019/ 06/ 27 by jd in Global News

“The latest Brexit fantasy is the most absurd of all. Article 24 of the WTO’s underlying treaty is not a solution to no-deal.” If Boris Johnson wins the election, “he needs to have a plan ready to deal with the disappointment of his followers when it turns out they were sold policies under false pretences. A unilateral invocation of part of Article 24 is not a way out of the UK’s Brexit predicament. If Mr Johnson and his followers do not know that, they soon will.”

 

The Irish Times (March 15)

2019/ 03/ 17 by jd in Global News

“Northern nationalism has shifted its view on the continued viability of the Northern Irish state.” A referendum is imminent and preparation essential for a unified Ireland. “A no-deal Brexit will lead to an instant call for a referendum…. If that happens, we’re into uncharted waters. That scenario is still only a few weeks away.” If there is a Brexit deal, “then the next census, due in 2021, will show a nationalist majority. At that point, it’s hard to see how a British secretary of state could resist calls for a border poll.”

 

Bloomberg (March 13)

2019/ 03/ 15 by jd in Global News

“Whatever happens on March 29—a no-deal Brexit, a delay to the departure or some kind of agreement—the U.K. faces a slow but steady erosion to its position as the European center of looking after other people’s money….. However Brexit plays out, the U.K. fund management industry will be a long-term loser from the fallout.”

 

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