South China Morning Post (December 19)
“China reduced its US Treasury holdings in October to its lowest level in 17 years, as mounting concerns over US debt sustainability and the Federal Reserve’s independence further eroded confidence in dollar-backed assets. The country’s stockpile fell to US$688.7 billion in October, down from US$700.5 billion in September.” At the peak in 2013, China held approximately US$1.32 trillion in Treasuries.
Tags: 2013, Assets, China, Concerns, Confidence, Debt sustainability, Federal Reserve, Independence, Lowest, Peak, S, Treasuries, U
The Economist (April 19)
The dollar is meant to be a source of safety. Lately, however, it has been a cause of fear. Since its peak in mid-January the greenback has fallen by over 9% against a basket of major currencies.” Meanwhile, the yield on Treasuries has been rising. “That mix of rising yields and a falling currency is a warning sign: if investors are fleeing even though returns are up, it must be because they think America has become more risky,” which explains the rumors that “big foreign asset managers are dumping greenbacks.”
Tags: Asset managers, Basket, Dollar, Dumping, Falling, Fear, Fleeing, Greenbacks, Investors, Major currencies, Peak, Returns, Risky, Safety, Treasuries, Warning sign, Yields
Reuters (December 8)
“Since war broke out in Ukraine and the U.S. Federal Reserve began a rapid cycle of raising borrowing costs early last year, it has been exceedingly difficult in most parts of the world for companies to get initial public offerings off the ground. Many are getting ready in case an opportunity arises,” but conditions remain unpromising. So far in 2023, “new listings have raised just $114 billion,” which is “on pace to be the lowest amount since 2008” and marks a “dramatic fall from the $571 billion peak achieved just two years ago.”
Tags: $114 billion, $571 billion, 2008, 2023, Dramatic fall, Fed, IPOs, Lowest, New listings, Peak, Rate hikes, U.S., Ukraine, Unpromising, War
Oilprice.com (October 24)
OPEC recently forecast “that demand for oil is going to continue rising at least until 2045.” In contrast, the just released Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency forecasts that “demand for oil, natural gas, and coal is set to peak before 2030, which undermines the case for increasing investment in fossil fuels…. While the agency does admit that investment in fossil fuels will remain necessary, it claims the growth era is over.”
Tags: 2030, 2045, Coal, Demand, Energy Outlook, Forecast, Fossil fuels, Growth era, IEC, Investment, Natural gas, Oil, OPEC, Over, Peak
New York Times (September 18)
“Children born today will very likely live to see the end of global population growth.” Estimates range from the 2060s to 2080s, but “all of the predictions agree on one thing: We peak soon. And then we shrink. Humanity will not reach a plateau and then stabilize. It will begin an unprecedented decline.” It’s not too soon “to start talking about what this means. “Waiting until the population peaks to ask how to respond to depopulation would be as imprudent as waiting until the world starts to run out of fossil fuels to begin responding to climate change.”
Tags: 2060s, 2080s, Children, Depopulation, Fossil fuels, Global, Humanity, Peak, Population growth, Response, Shrink, Unprecedented decline
Investment Week (August 4)
“The outlook for the UK equity market feels particularly depressed and it is not hard to see why. Even after June’s better-than-expected inflation figures, core UK inflation remains high, which suggests higher interest rates for longer. Commentators are expecting that the base rate, which at 5.25% is at its highest for over 15 years, is likely to peak around 5.75%. This would bring even more pain for mortgage borrowers and greater government borrowing costs to an already faltering economy.”
Tags: 5.25%, 5.75%, Base rate, Borrowers, Depressed, Equity market, Inflation, Interest rates, Mortgage, Outlook, Pain, Peak, UK
Investments and Pensions Europe (May 18)
“We’re now about half way through peak voting season in Europe and North America, which tends to take place between April and June.” Companies are fielding both a high volume and range of proposals. “At Amazon alone, there are 18 shareholder proposals going to vote in 2023, ranging from requests for human rights audits on its technology, through to disclosure around animal welfare issues.”
Tags: Amazon, Animal welfare, Disclosure, Europe, Human rights audits, North America, Peak, Range, Shareholder proposals, Technology, Volume, Voting season
Bloomberg (April 8)
“Almost $1.5 trillion of US commercial real estate debt comes due for repayment before the end of 2025. The big question facing those borrowers is who’s going to lend to them?” Morgan Stanley has estimated “office and retail property valuations could fall as much as 40% from peak to trough, increasing the risk of defaults.” Regional banks are now skittish about lending and “the wall of debt is set to get worse before it gets better.”
Tags: $1.5 trillion, 2025, Borrowers, Commercial real estate, Debt, Defaults, Morgan Stanley, Office, Peak, Regional banks, Repayment, Risk, Skittish, Trough, U.S., Valuations
Fortune (February 21)
“The housing market correction just took a new turn,” which appears to be “brutal.” KB Home’s Q4 results revealed a buyer cancellation rate that shot to 68%, up from 13% year on year. The Q4 cancellation rate “also surpassed the industry’s peak cancellation rate of 47% during the darkest days of the 2008-era crash.”
Tags: 2008-era crash, 47%, 68%, Brutal, Buyer cancellation rate, Correction, Housing market, KB Home, Peak, Q4 results
Financial Times (October 30)
Empty housing poses an increasing threat to both Japan and China. The former already grapples with surplus units while the latter “may already have enough housing to meet its future needs.” Nomura Research Institute has forecast that in Japan, “even as the number of empty units roughly doubles between 2023 and 2038, construction will add more than 8mn new ones.” Due to the rise of single person households, the total number of households will only peak next year. From that point, “the housing surplus will rise more acutely and the downward pressure on property prices strengthen.” The major demographic issue facing China, “may be how to avoid a Japan-style property crisis.”
Tags: China, Construction, Demographic, Downward pressure, Empty, Households, Housing, Japan, NRI, Peak, Property crisis, Surplus, Threat, Units
