Barron’s (October 21)
Tags: Elevated oil prices, Hope, Hostage crisis playbook, Inflation, Influence, Investors, Iran, Middle East, Options strategist, Respected, Standoff, Strait of Hormuz, Trump, U.S., Weakness
Bloomberg (October 4)
As Middle East crude flows return to near-normal levels, “global prices remain stuck above $100, roughly 40% higher than when the conflict began.” The elevated prices are “sending shock waves through the global economy, feeding inflation and squeezing industries and consumers alike,” but rapid improvement is unlikely. “A confluence of problems” now keeps prices high:” depleted inventories and reserves that need to be replaced, fears the “unresolved war could reignite,” the drastically increased cost of transit, and elsewhere Russia’s war with Ukraine has curtailed other supplies.
Tags: 100, 40% higher, Conflict, Confluence, Consumers, Cost, Crude, Depleted inventories, Fears, Global economy, Industries, Inflation, Middle East, Reignite, Reserves, Russia, Shock waves, Transit, War
OilPrice.com (July 20)
“Traffic via Hormuz is once again paralyzed, tanker crossings are sporadic, and Iran and the United States are intensifying the exchange of fire. Meanwhile, global oil stocks are melting like snow. Oil prices have been on a climb for over a week now as hostilities in the Middle East continue, and despite recent talk of a glut, the physical market is flashing signs of tightness—and higher oil for longer.”
Tags: Global oil stocks, Glut, Higher, Hormuz, Hostilities, Intensifying, Iran, Longer, Middle East, Oil prices, Paralyzed, Physical market, Tanker crossings, Tightness, Traffic, U.S.
Time (July 16)
“Iran’s return to conflict is best read as a calculated gamble…. Above all, Tehran’s leadership fears a staged unwinding of its leverage. Once it stops threatening shipping and restrains its regional partners, those tools become difficult to recover.” While Iran may be “running a familiar playbook of escalating to deescalate” and may have an “accurate reading” of President Donald Trump’s desire “to avoid rising energy prices, American casualties, and another open ended war in the Middle East;” there’s less certainty about how that deescalation will come about. “There is no formal consensus… and no faction willing to move first on anything that could be portrayed as surrendering leverage, legitimizing the bombing campaign, or handing Trump a clear victory.”
Tags: Calculated, Casualties, Certainty, Conflict, Deescalate, Energy prices, Escalating, Fears, Iran, Leadership, Legitimizing, Leverage, Middle East, Recover, Shipping, Threatening, Tools, Trump, War
The Economist (July 18)
“It is too darn hot. On July 14th the surface temperature of Earth’s tropical and mid-latitude oceans was higher than on any other July 14th in modern records. The same was true for every other day in July, and for almost all of the days in June, too. Europe has gone through three heatwaves since May, and though the continent is better prepared for such things than it used to be, tens of thousands will have died as a result.”
Tags: Bessent, Bonds, Conflict, Currency, Decipher, Dollar, Fiscal concerns, Inflation, Investors, Markets, Middle East, Reassess, Trade war, US, Warsh
Wall Street Journal (June 18)
The Japanese yen “has now passed the closely watched 160-per-dollar level at which officials have previously intervened.” There are, however, reasons “why yen interventions this time around may prove trickier.” Even though the BoJ increased “rates to their highest level since 1995 this week,” the interest rate differential persists between Japan and the U.S., and this continues to punish the currency, as does the situation in the Middle East.
Tags: 160-per-dollar, 1995, BOJ, Currency, Differential, Interest rate, Intervened, Interventions, Japan, Middle East, Officials, Punish, Trickier, U.S., Yen
The Times (June 2)
“Since the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, schools have closed in Dhaka, food prices have surged in Lagos, and air fares have risen in Seoul. And in Tokyo, otherwise respectable men have started exposing their hairy knees.” Cool Biz and Super Cool Biz had already toppled expectations for suits and ties, but “it took the Hormuz crisis, for a country that imports 90 per cent of its energy from the Middle East, to topple this final bastion of formality.” There have been dire consequences of the Iran war, but “none as bizarre as the fate that has befallen the Japanese.”
Tags: Air fares, Bizarre, Consequences, Cool Biz, Crisis, Dhaka, Dire, Energy, Food prices, Formality, Lagos, Middle East, Respectable, Schools, Seoul, Strait of Hormuz, Suits, Ties, Tokyo, War
South China Morning Post (May 24)
“Tensions in the Middle East and mounting energy prices have made Beijing less willing to enforce anti-involution or supply consolidation measures on its solar industry, prolonging a price war as solar manufacturers continue to bleed cash, analysts say.”
Tags: Anti-involution, Beijing, Bleed cash, Energy prices, Enforce, Manufacturers, Middle East, Price war, Solar industry, Supply consolidation, Tensions
Los Angeles Times (May 4)
“Inflation surged to 3.5% in March — the highest level in nearly three years — as gas prices climbed above $4.40 due to Middle East tensions, yet consumers barely flinched. The U.S. economy expanded at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter while unemployment claims hit a 50-year low, signaling unexpected resilience despite inflation pressures.”
Tags: Consumers, Economy, Expanded, Gas prices, Inflation, March, Middle East, Q1, Surged, Tensions, U.S., Unemployment claims, Unexpected
Financial Times (May 1)
“The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have warned they may need to raise interest rates in the coming months, as central banks grapple with the energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East. The two central banks on Thursday followed the Federal Reserve in holding interest rates at their current levels, but both indicated future rate rises could be necessary if soaring energy costs spill over into persistently high inflation.”
Tags: BOE, Central banks, Costs, ECB, Energy shock, Fed, Grapple, Interest rates, Middle East, War, Warned
