Time (July 16)
“Iran’s return to conflict is best read as a calculated gamble…. Above all, Tehran’s leadership fears a staged unwinding of its leverage. Once it stops threatening shipping and restrains its regional partners, those tools become difficult to recover.” While Iran may be “running a familiar playbook of escalating to deescalate” and may have an “accurate reading” of President Donald Trump’s desire “to avoid rising energy prices, American casualties, and another open ended war in the Middle East;” there’s less certainty about how that deescalation will come about. “There is no formal consensus… and no faction willing to move first on anything that could be portrayed as surrendering leverage, legitimizing the bombing campaign, or handing Trump a clear victory.”
Tags: Calculated, Casualties, Certainty, Conflict, Deescalate, Energy prices, Escalating, Fears, Iran, Leadership, Legitimizing, Leverage, Middle East, Recover, Shipping, Threatening, Tools, Trump, War
Wall Street Journal (May 17)
“It’s déjà vu all over again in the Middle East as another round of Israeli-Palestinian combat follows a tragic and familiar path: another spasm of violence, another media firestorm over civilian casualties, another wave of demonstrations around the world, another diplomatic kerfuffle as would-be mediators jostle, and another donnybrook in American politics over how Washington should respond.”
Tags: Casualties, Combat, Déjà vu, Familiar, Firestorm, Israel, Media, Mediators, Middle East, Palestine, Spasm, Tragic, Violence
The Economist (June 16)
“India and China have their first deadly clashes in 45 years.” Although “artillery and tanks” stayed quiet, front-line soldiers engaged wielding “only sticks and stones.” When “the final rocks had been thrown, at least 20 Indian troops lay dead….Chinese casualties are unknown.” The hostilities are “a sign of worrying military escalation between Asia’s giants.”
Tags: Artillery, Casualties, China, Clashes, Escalation, Front-line, Hostilities, India, Soldiers, Sticks, Stones, Tanks
South China Morning Post (August 14)
“The crisis in Hong Kong appears to be careening towards a devastating climax.” But China “must pick the least bad option to resolve Hong Kong crisis” and that’s not a PLA crackdown. The PLA would be treated “as invaders, and resistance would be fierce and casualties unavoidable.” Furthermore, “an exodus of expats and elites would follow, and the Hong Kong economy – still a bridge between China the rest of the world – would almost immediately collapse.”
Tags: Careening, Casualties, China, Collapse, Crackdown, Crisis, Devastating climax, Elites, Exodus, Expats, Hong Kong, Invaders, PLA, Resistance
