South China Morning Post (May 19)
“China’s economy mostly remained resilient in April, despite feeling the effects of the astronomical tariffs in place before last week, when Washington and Beijing agreed to remove or pause most of the duties imposed as part of their tempestuous trade war.” Though consumption softened, manufacturing fared better than expected. “China’s industrial output rose 6.1 per cent, beating estimates, while domestic consumption up 5.1 per cent–slightly below expectations.”
Tags: Agreed, April, Beijing, China, Consumption, Duties, Economy, Estimates, Industrial output, Manufacturing, Resilient, Tariffs, Trade war, Washington
FX Empire (October 26)
The IMF’s latest forecast counteracted any hope attached to China’s stimulus policy. “Markets reacted positively” when the People’s Bank of China “cut 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates (LPR) by 25 basis points” since “lower borrowing costs could drive credit demand and consumption.” In contrast, “the IMF’s latest growth projections… called for caution,” with 2024 growth forecast for China lowered from 5.0% to 4.8%.” Moreover, the IMF pointed out that “Beijing’s maneuvers may not be enough to support an economic recovery.”
Tags: 25 bp, Borrowing costs, Caution, China, Consumption, Credit demand, Economic recovery, Forecast, Growth projections, IMF, Markets, PBOC, Rates, Reacted, Stimulus
New York Times (August 30)
“The world is well stocked with oil…. Demand continues to grow, but production seems likely to keep pace.” This is one reason “the market seems surprisingly calm” given “the degree of political turmoil not only in Libya but in the Middle East.” The other reason is China. After accounting for “roughly half of consumption increases in the last two decades,” China is no longer driving consumption. The nation’s shift to EVs could even “lead to drops in demand there for diesel this year and for gasoline in 2025.”
Tags: 2025, Calm, China, Consumption, Demand, Diesel, EVs, Gasoline, Libya, Middle East, Oil, Political turmoil, Production, Well stocked, World
South China Morning Post (May 17)
“A larger fall of property investment and a slowdown of consumption continued to haunt China’s economic activities in April, despite Beijing having stepped up actions to boost consumer goods sales, upgrade equipment and solve the widely watched property slowdown.”
Tags: April, Beijing, Boost, China, Consumer goods, Consumption, Economic activities, Equipment, Fall, Haunt, Investment, Property, Sales, Slowdown
Reuters (July 3)
“Japanese business sentiment improved in the second quarter as raw material costs peaked and removal of pandemic curbs lifted consumption… a sign the economy was on course for a steady recovery.” The quarterly survey or “tankan” by the central bank offers “policymakers hope that conditions for phasing out their massive monetary stimulus may be gradually falling into place.”
Tags: Business sentiment, Consumption, Costs, Economy, Japan, Monetary stimulus, Pandemic curbs, Peaked, Policymakers, Q2, Raw material, Steady recovery
Bloomberg (March 5)
China’s reopening “means Chinese oil consumption is poised to hit a record this year. Daily demand will reach an all-time high of 16 million barrels a day,” and looks increasingly likely to tip the price back above $100 a barrel amid tight supply.
Tags: 100, 16 mmb/d, China, Consumption, Demand, Oil, Poised, Price, Record, Reopening, Tight supply, Tip
Financial Times (January 21)
“In a country where companies have resisted raising pay and the workforce has refrained from aggressive salary demands for most of the past three decades, Fast Retailing’s move is a watershed for the government and the Bank of Japan’s battle to lift the economy out of deflation.” Should the approach gain momentum, “the ramifications could be far-reaching,” potentially leading to “a virtuous cycle of rising wages, consumption and prices” that “would allow Japan to finally move away from the negative interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policies.”
Tags: BOJ, Consumption, Deflation, Demands, Economy, Fast Retailing, Interest rates, Japan, Prices, Raising pay, Rising wages, Salary, Ultra-loose, Virtuous cycle, Watershed, Workforce
Australian Financial Review (July 17)
“Oil has begun to drop back down this week to pre-invasion levels as traders brace for a sharp drop-off in consumption. But food price inflation remains stubbornly high.” Nevertheless, food prices remain largely off the radar. “The dramatic spikes in oil and mineral prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have distracted investors from the long-lasting and more dangerous impact of food inflation.” This has led BlackRock founder Larry Fink to sound the alarm on food inflation which also has profound geopolitical impacts.
Tags: BlackRock, Consumption, Dangerous, Distracted, Drop-off, Food, Impact, Inflation, Invasion, Investors, Larry Fink, Mineral, Oil, Pre-invasion, Russia, Spikes, Traders, Ukraine
New York Times (July 14)
President Biden is in the Middle East hoping production may be increased, “but the oil crunch may already be easing. A report yesterday from the International Energy Agency suggests that the worst of the supply crisis may be over.” The IEA slashed its demand forecasts “for this year and next, pointing to high prices that would reduce consumption and slow the global economy.”
Tags: Biden, Consumption, Demand, Easing, Forecasts, Global economy, High prices, IEA, Middle East, Oil crunch, Production, Supply crisis
BBC (April 4)
“Even if all the policies to cut carbon that governments had put in place by the end of 2020 were fully implemented, the world will still warm by 3.2C this century…. The good news is that this latest IPCC summary shows that it can be done…. But keeping temperatures down will require massive changes to energy production, industry, transport, our consumption patterns and the way we treat nature.”
Tags: 2020, Carbon, Consumption, Energy production, Governments, Implemented, Industry, IPCC, Nature, Policies, Temperatures, Transport, Warm, World
