Market Watch (September 6)
“The U.S.’s status as a financial safe haven has begun to clash with President Trump’s growing barrage of economic and military threats to advance his agenda.” There seems be a common fear behind the Netherland’s recent withdrawal of reserve gold from the U.S., the drawdowns of France and Germany’s U.S.-based reserves, and a current plan in Norway to cut Treasury holdings. Basically, what’s to stop Trump from simply seizing their assets? His “sweeping tariff fight shocked the world last year. Then came the capture in January of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, February’s launch of the U.S.-Iran war, and plans in late August to control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. In between, there’s been taunting of European and NATO allies, a campaign to takeover over Greenland and its natural resources and, lately, an escalating U.S.-Canada trade war.” So even if seizure sounds far-fetched, it is a legitimate risk for central banks to mitigate.
Tags: Allies, Assets, Barrage, Canada, Capture, Clash, Economic, Escalating, Europe, Fear, France, Germany, Gold, Greenland, Iran war, Maduro, Military threats, Nato, Netherlands, Norway, Reserves, Risk, Safe haven, Seizing, Seizure, Tariff, Taunting, Trade war, Treasury, Trump, U.S., Venezuela, Venezuelan oil, Withdrawal
Fortune (September 3)
“As traders head into the final leg of 2025 they are not doing so with overconfidence. In fact, if this week’s bond market is anything to go by, they’re nervous.” Safe haven gold has hit record highs and a “global bond selloff” is creating concern over national debt. “The upset isn’t confined to America alone. In Europe, French government bonds…similarly spiked toward a 5% yield and sit at 4.49% at the time of writing, marking its highest run since 2009.” Arguably, the U.K. is getting hit hardest, “with 30-year gilts pushing above 5.7%, their highest level since the spring of 1998.”
Tags: 2025, Bond market, France, Gilts, Global bond selloff, Gold, National debt, Nervous, Overconfidence, Record highs, Safe haven, Traders, U.K., U.S.
Time (March 15)
“Amid widespread economic turmoil, the price of gold has soared to levels never seen before,” with Gold futures exceeding $3,000 per troy ounce. Prices for this safe haven investment “are spiking higher now as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have kicked off an international trade war that has roiled financial markets and threatened to reignite inflation for families and businesses alike.”
Tags: 000 oz t, 3%, Economic, Gold, Inflation, Investment, Markets, Price, Roiled, Safe haven, Soared, Spiking, Tariff policies, Trade war, Trump, Turmoil, U.S., Widespread
Reuters (March 10)
“Wall Street futures sank and the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc strengthened early on Monday as building deflationary pressures in China added to growth worries from a fading U.S. economy and an escalating global trade war.”
Tags: China, Deflationary pressures, Economy, Escalating, Fading, Futures, Global trade war, Growth, Safe haven, Strengthened, Swiss franc, U.S., Wall Street, Worries, Yen
South China Morning Post (May 25)
Several factors help explain “the outperformance of Japanese shares.” Improved corporate governance and the end of deflation are important, but “the explanation with the most resonance for investors is Japan’s role as a safe haven in an increasingly risky world. This has taken on added significance because of concerns about the deepening geopolitical rift between the US and China, as well as economic and regulatory risks in China itself.” Japan boasts “the only market in Asia big and liquid enough to offer an alternative to China while still providing exposure to the reopening of its economy.”
Tags: Big, China, Corporate governance, Deflation, Economic, Exposure, Factors, Geopolitical rift, Investors, Japan, Liquid, Outperformance, Regulatory risks, Reopening, Risky world, Safe haven, Shares, US
Financial Times (December 10, 2013)
“South Korea was one of the only winners in the summer’s emerging market sell-off, sparked by fears about the outlook for US monetary policy.” In search of a safe haven, foreign buyers poured into South Korea, but now they are pouring out in favor of more promising markets. “Caught between Japan’s fresh Abenomics-fuelled rally and reform-gripped China, South Korea looks in need of a new narrative.”South Korea, Emerging markets, Sell-off, Outlook, U.S., Monetary policy, Safe haven, Foreign buyers, Abenomics, Rally, Reform, China, South Korea
Tags: Abenomics, China, Emerging markets, Foreign buyers, Monetary policy, Outlook, Rally, Reform, Safe haven, Sell-off, South Korea, U.S.
Financial Times (October 8)
“The Federal Reserve’s new round of quantitative easing may stall the dollar’s long term appreciation but it will not reverse it.” The dollar is being driven higher by four fundamentals: 1). The growing U.S. economy 2). The safe-haven status of U.S. bond markets 3). The shale gas revolution reducing U.S. dependence on imported energy 4). The determination of other central bankers not to let their national currencies appreciate. QE3 merely “presents headwinds to the dollar’s favourable fundamentals.”
Tags: Central bankers, Dollar, Economy, Fed, QE3, Safe haven, Shale gas, U.S.
The Economist (November 23)
“What safe haven?” As worries spread, the entire Euro zone looks increasingly tainted. “There is an awful sense of a slow motion disaster in the markets at the moment, with every day bringing some herald of bad news.” The latest bad news involved Germany. Once considered a safe haven, Germany was only able to auction €4 billion of a planned €6 billion bund sale.
“What safe haven?” As worries spread, the entire Euro zone looks increasingly tainted. “There is an awful sense of a slow motion disaster in the markets at the moment, with every day bringing some herald of bad news.” The latest bad news involved Germany. Once considered a safe haven, Germany was only able to auction €4 billion of a planned €6 billion bund sale.
Tags: Disaster, Euro zone, Germany, Markets, Safe haven
The Economist (September 3)
Japan’s not alone in living with an overvalued currency. The commodities “boom has lifted the Australian dollar by more than 43% since the start of 2009” and “pushed up Brazil’s real by even more.” Switzerland escaped this boom, but it’s blessed (or cursed) “with a commodity prized more than iron ore or soyabeans in uncertain times: safety.” As a result the Swiss franc has shot upward. Policymakers in all three countries are concerned, but efforts to weaken their currencies have born little fruit. “Instead of trying to prevent a rise in the currency, countries can, of course, learn to live with it.”
