Fortune (September 23)
“The OECD has lifted its prediction of global growth to 3.2% for the year, up from the 2.9% it forecasted in June. Predicted U.S. growth rose to 1.8%, an uptick from the 1.6% predicted in June. Still, the OECD warned it had not revised global or U.S. prospects for next year, and the outlook is not good” as the negative impact of tariffs has yet to fully materialize. In 2026, “global growth is predicted to drop to 2.9% while U.S. growth is set to hit 1.5% in 2026, a significant decrease from the respective 3.3% and 2.8% growth in 2024.”
Tags: 2026, 3.2%, Decrease, Global growth, Materialize, Negative impact, OECD, Outlook, Prediction, Tariffs, U.S., Uptick, Warned
New York Times (December 22)
“An annual ritual is underway at the major Wall Street investment houses: predicting exactly where the S&P 500 will finish the next calendar year.” Since 2000, the Wall Street consensus has failed miserably at this fool’s errand, predicting only gains when there were seven years of losses. Their average “variance between actual annual performance and the prediction was huge — an average gap of 14.2 percentage points.”
Tags: 14.2 percentage points, 2000, Consensus, Fool’s errand, Gains, Investment houses, Losses, Performance, Prediction, Ritual, S&P 500, Variance, Wall Street
Fortune (May 6)
“Warren Buffett, whose economic insights are craved for Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s deep ties to the American economy, had a gloomy prediction for his own businesses: the good times may be over. The billionaire investor expects earnings at the majority of Berkshire’s operations to fall this year as a long-predicted downturn slows economic activity.”
Tags: Berkshire Hathaway, Billionaire, Buffett, Craved, Downturn, Earnings, Economy, Gloomy, Insights, Investor, Predicted, Prediction
Forbes (July 11)
“Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole lot worse. The token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it is to rally back to $30,000,” according to survey of 950 investors. This “lopsided prediction underscores how bearish investors have become. The crypto industry has been rocked by troubled lenders, collapsed currencies, and an end to the easy money policies of the pandemic that fueled a speculative frenzy in financial markets.”
Tags: Bearish, Bitcoin, Bulls, Crash, Cryptocurrency, Currencies, Easy money, Financial markets, Investors, Lenders, Pandemic, Prediction, Rally, Speculative frenzy, Survey, Troubled, Wall Street
Wall Street Journal (January 16)
“The prediction that 2015 will be a year of currency turmoil is already coming true.” On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank roiled markets when it dropped its currency peg. “This won’t be the last currency shock as the world’s big central banks go their own way in frantic attempts to spur a slowing global economy.”
Tags: Central bank, Currency peg, Economy, Prediction, Shock, SNB, Switzerland, Turmoil
Financial Times (January 2)
“The commitment of member governments and, above all, of the European Central Bank to maintain the eurozone looks strong enough to keep it together for another year, at least.”
Tags: 2012, ECB, eurozone, Prediction, Survival
