Fortune (September 23)
“The OECD has lifted its prediction of global growth to 3.2% for the year, up from the 2.9% it forecasted in June. Predicted U.S. growth rose to 1.8%, an uptick from the 1.6% predicted in June. Still, the OECD warned it had not revised global or U.S. prospects for next year, and the outlook is not good” as the negative impact of tariffs has yet to fully materialize. In 2026, “global growth is predicted to drop to 2.9% while U.S. growth is set to hit 1.5% in 2026, a significant decrease from the respective 3.3% and 2.8% growth in 2024.”
Tags: 2026, 3.2%, Decrease, Global growth, Materialize, Negative impact, OECD, Outlook, Prediction, Tariffs, U.S., Uptick, Warned
Financial Times (April 14)
“Momentum in economies including the US and India has been picking up in recent months, helping stoke optimism that global growth in 2024 will modestly outpace last year’s reading…. providing a bright spot amid a largely lacklustre global economic backdrop .”
Tags: 2024, Bright spot, Economies, Global growth, India, Momentum, Optimism, Outpace, U.S.
McKinsey Global Institute (November 15)
Since 2000, net worth has tripled “to $510 trillion, or 6.1 times global GDP, with China accounting for one-third of global growth.” The increase “mainly reflects valuation gains in real assets, especially real estate, rather than investment in productive assets that drive our economies.” Remarkably, the “historic link between the growth of net worth and the growth of GDP no longer holds.”
Tags: $510 trillion, 2000, China, Economies, GDP, Global growth, Investment, Net worth, Productive assets, Real assets, Real estate, Valuation gains
Bloomberg (October 17)
“The IMF estimates that the U.S.-China trade war has shaved 0.8 percentage points off global growth,” but “the costs of tariffs could prove higher than just an economic slowdown.” The largely neglected threat is that the “slowdown, combined with a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, could cause a wave of defaults among corporations. This double whammy could threaten the world’s financial stability.”
Tags: China, Costs, Defaults Financial stability, Global growth, IMF, Monetary policy, Slowdown, Tariffs, Trade war, U.S.
Bloomberg (October 12)
“China’s car market has been one of the most reliable engines of global growth for decades. Now that all might be coming to an end…. Purchases of passenger vehicles by dealerships plunged for a third straight month…. The industry is now facing the prospect of its first contraction since at least the 1990s.”
Tags: Car market, China, Contraction, Global growth, Passenger vehicles, Plunged, Purchases, Reliable
Bloomberg (April 17)
“China’s economic expansion held up amid robust consumer spending, underpinning global growth and giving authorities room to purge excessive borrowing, while the industrial sector showed signs of modest slowdown.”
Tags: China, Consumer spending, Economic expansion, Excessive borrowing, Global growth, Industrial, Slowdown
Barron’s (November 20)
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Ajay Kapur, “Asian and emerging markets could easily double over the next two years or so…. It is really earnings that are driving Asian markets. Global growth is not that strong, but it is pervasive. Of the 38 countries from which we get purchasing-managers index information, 87% are above 50, which means they are expanding. That’s the highest since 2011.”
Tags: Asia, BoA, Earnings, Emerging markets, Expanding, Global growth, Kapur, Merrill Lynch, PMI
Institutional Investor (January 6)
Amid “slowing global growth concerns and plummeting oil,” Russia has become a “cornered bear.” Food shortages and other anecdotal evidence suggest the domestic economy is crumbling and “that the pain is far from over.” Putin’s chances of finding “a solution that can provide economic relief while allowing him to save face” are looking “increasingly slim.”
Tags: Economy, Food shortages, Global growth, Oil, Pain, Putin, Relief, Russia
Institutional Investor (October 29)
“The U.S. is finally enjoying a self-sustaining economic recovery, but slow global growth remains a concern, and financial markets are bouncing up and down by the day.”
The Economist (August 6)
“Emerging economies now have greater heft on many measures than developed ones.” The Economist takes a look and finds some surprises. “The combined output of the developing economies accounted for 38% of world GDP (at market exchange rates) in 2010, twice its share in 1990…. it could exceed the developed world’s within seven years. If GDP is instead measured at purchasing-power parity, which takes account of the fact that lower prices in poorer countries boost real spending power, emerging economies overtook the developed world in 2008 and are likely to reach 54% of world GDP this year. Even more impressive, they accounted for three-quarters of global real GDP growth over the past decade.”
“Emerging economies now have greater heft on many measures than developed ones.” The Economist takes a look at emerging economies and finds some surprises. “The combined output of the developing economies accounted for 38% of world GDP (at market exchange rates) in 2010, twice its share in 1990…. it could exceed the developed world’s within seven years. If GDP is instead measured at purchasing-power parity, which takes account of the fact that lower prices in poorer countries boost real spending power, emerging economies overtook the developed world in 2008 and are likely to reach 54% of world GDP this year. Even more impressive, they accounted for three-quarters of global real GDP growth over the past decade.”
