Reuters (January 7)
“U.S. job openings dropped to a 14-month low in November while hiring resumed its sluggish tone, pointing to ebbing demand for labor amid policy uncertainty related to import tariffs and the integration of artificial intelligence in some work roles.” Nevertheless, “employers remained hesitant to carry out mass layoffs, keeping the labor market in what economists and policymakers call a ‘no hire, no fire’ state.”
Tags: AI, Demand, Ebbing, Employers, Hiring, Import tariffs, Job openings, Labor market, Layoffs, Low, November, Policy uncertainty, Sluggish, U.S.
Fortune (December 19)
“While America’s labor market may not be collapsing, Moody’s Analytics has highlighted that it is inching steadily closer toward a key recession indicator, with analysts now placing the probability of an economic contraction at around 40%.”
Tags: $40, Analysts, Collapsing, Economic contraction, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Probability, Recession indicator, U.S.
New York Times (December 1)
“Investors had been growing more optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates at next week’s meeting” while holiday sales “also bolstered the rally.” Still, “the consumer is still a major concern…. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have flagged that a recent rise in spending may be masking a concerning economic undercurrent: Many lower-income consumers are struggling with stubbornly high inflation and an uncertain labor market.”
Tags: Analysts, BoA, Consumer, Fed, GS, Holiday sales, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Labor market, Lower-income, Optimistic, Rally, Spending, Struggling, Undercurrent
New York Times (September 6)
“When the federal government last month reported a sharp decline in the nation’s hiring, President Trump dismissed the numbers, claiming without evidence that they were “rigged,” and then ousted the official responsible for producing them.” This month’s jobs report was even worse, confirming “the reality that Mr. Trump has been trying to avoid. The labor market is stalling—and the nation is facing real strains—under the weight of his economic agenda.” His administration will try to deflect, but “the numbers mostly reflect what Americans already know.” Consumer sentiment has weakened in anticipation of tariff-linked inflation while “surveys show that workers are worried about holding onto their jobs and pessimistic about their chances of finding a different one.”
Tags: Consumer sentiment, Federal government, Hiring, Inflation, Jobs report, Labor market, Rigged, Sharp decline, Stalling, Strains, Tariffs, Trump, Weakened, Workers, Worried
USA Today (August 16)
“President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or “stagflation” – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office.” Economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics believes the U.S. is edging toward stagflation, but will not end up there. Much will depend on the Fed which “faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation.”
Tags: Begley, Dilemma, Economic policies, Economist, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Rates, Recession, Stagflation, Stagflation. Dire, Trump, U.S.
U.S. News and World Report (December 30)
“The past two years have defied economists’ predictions for a slowing economy, or even a recession.” Despite increased risk and uncertainty arising from the “wild card of Trump,” the U.S. economy “should remain strong” as it is buoyed by “a moderating labor market, lower interest rates and strong household income.” Household wealth has surged 40% to $150 trillion since 2020, “while debt service payments measured as a percentage of income have largely remained static.”
Tags: Defied, Economy, Household income, Interest rates, Labor market, Predictions, Recession, Risk, Slowing Economy, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Wealth Debt service, Wild card
Wall Street Journal (December 6)
“Better productivity growth has helped the U.S. power past similar economies such as the European Union’s and Canada’s…. Over the past five years, quarterly year-over-year productivity growth has averaged 2.1%, a sharp improvement from growth over the 10 years prior.” This “critical development… has allowed for strong economic output and declining inflation, even as the labor market cools.”
Tags: 2.1%, Canada, declining inflation, Economic output, Economies, EU, Improvement, Labor market, Power, Productivity growth, Strong, U.S.
Reuters (August 24)
The U.S. Federal Reserve “must determine how quickly to get to what they deem a neutral rate, neither depressing nor stimulating economic activity. Investors clearly hope that they prioritize speed.” Chairman Powell has now arrived at “the endgame, when the prospect of success is near at hand but the possibility of failure is at its most dangerous. To save the labor market, the cuts can’t come soon enough.”
Tags: Depressing, Economic activity, Endgame, Failure, Fed, Investors, Labor market, Neutral rate, Powell, Prioritize, Speed, Stimulating, Success, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (May 12)
“Job satisfaction hit a 36-year high in 2022, reflecting two effects of the tight pandemic labor market: The quality of jobs improved as wages and work flexibility increased, and workers moved into positions that were a better fit.” The Conference Board found that worker satisfaction increased from 56.8% in 2020 to 62.3% in 2022.”
Tags: 2022, Conference Board, Flexibility, Job satisfaction, Labor market, Pandemic, Quality, Wages, Work
Forbes (April 8)
“Job cuts are approaching levels not seen since the pandemic began in 2020, as major cuts in the technology and financial industries are starting to show their impact on the economy and soften the labor market.”
Tags: 2020, Economy, Financial industry, Impact, Job cuts, Labor market, Pandemic, Technology
