Investment Week (June 12)
“Earlier this month, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not expect inflation to decline quickly, signalling resistance against the market consensus. We believe it would have to be a severe economic recession for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year, as is currently priced in by the forward markets. Therefore, we believe, interest rates will remain ‘higher for longer’. This is inherently positive for MMFs, where yields and total returns are driven for the most part by central bank rates. A higher-for-longer interest rate trajectory could potentially yield 4.5% to 5% for MMFs in US-dollar terms in the next three, six and 12 months.”
Tags: 4.5% to 5%, Consensus, Fed, Forward markets, Higher for longer, Inflation, Interest rates, MMFs, Powell, Recession, Resistance, Total returns, U.S., Yields
New York Times (March 21)
“The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and three other lenders over the past 11 days” have “put the Fed in a difficult position as it prepares to deliver on Wednesday one of the most consequential decisions on interest rates of the Jay Powell era.” In addition to tightening rates to curb inflation while somehow avoiding a recession, the “banking crisis hands the central bank a third crucial challenge: how to steer the banking sector out of the predicament and restore confidence in the sector.”
Tags: Banking crisis, Consequential, Decisions, Failures, Fed, Inflation, Interest rates, Powell, Predicament, Recession, SVB
Bloomberg (July 27)
In unscripted remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned interest rates are at a “neutral level,” which is shorthand for “consistent with monetary policy being neither contractionary nor expansionary.” If rates really “are already at neutral. This would improve the chances of the Fed being able to soft-land the economy, thereby reducing inflation with limited damage to livelihoods and without triggering unsettling financial instability.”
Tags: Contractionary, Economy, Expansionary, Fed Chair, Inflation, Instability, Interest rates, Livelihoods, Monetary policy, Neutral level, Powell, Unscripted
Bloomberg (May 5)
“The collective sigh of relief in markets after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against super-sized hike speculation may be short lived.” The strategists “who fear inflation” suspect this is a “false dawn.”
Tags: Collective, Fed, Hike, Inflation, Markets, Powell, Relief, Short lived, Speculation, Strategists, Suspect
Market Watch (January 29)
“Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is giving investors another six weeks to envision a future where interest rates start to climb and its balance sheet dramatically shrinks. Expect a lot of swings in markets until then.”
Tags: Balance sheet, Climb, Envision, Federal Reserve, Future, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Powell, Shrinks, Swing
Washington Post (November 23)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been nominated for another four-year term. If again confirmed, he will face “a daunting challenge: At a time when employment remains several million jobs below pre-pandemic levels, inflation is taking off at a rate not seen for 30 years.” And the blame from all “across the political spectrum” will be pinned on him. “Not since Paul Volcker accepted President Jimmy Carter’s nomination to the position amid double-digit inflation in mid-1979 has any central banker confronted a more difficult situation.”
Tags: Blame, Carter, Challenge, Confirmed, Daunting, Employment, Fed, Inflation, Nominated, Powell, Pre-pandemic, Volcker
New York Times (November 4)
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a tapering of stimulus programs, but he did not “lay the groundwork for higher rates.” That doesn’t mean “the era of near-zero rates will last anything close to as long as it did after the global financial crisis,” but if the current inflation surge “proves something other than temporary, Mr. Powell’s decision to stick to his guns” on interest rates “will loom as a missed moment to join other English-speaking countries in using monetary policy to try to stamp it out.”
Tags: Fed, Global financial crisis, Inflation, Interest, Monetary policy, Near-zero, Powell, Rates, Stimulus, Surge, Tapering
LA Times (August 23)
“The real threat to the U.S. economy Friday wasn’t Powell,” the Federal Reserve Chairman. “It was Trump’s trade policies and public outbursts. Having righted itself by the end of Powell’s speech, the Dow dropped sharply immediately after the president’s Friday tirade. As of this writing, it was down 455 points.”
Bloomberg (May 7)
“The conventional wisdom that the Fed’s next move would be down and the trade spat with China would end just got dealt a one-two punch…. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against calls for a near-term rate cut and U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to ratchet up tariffs on imported Chinese goods.”
Tags: China, Conventional, Fed, Powell, Tariffs, Trade spat, Trump, U.S.
US News & World Report (February 27)
“New Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a message Tuesday that wasn’t quite what Wall Street had expected: The U.S. economy is doing well, maybe even better than he thought late last year.”
Tags: Economy, Fed, Powell, U.S., Wall Street
