USA Today (August 16)
“President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or “stagflation” – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office.” Economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics believes the U.S. is edging toward stagflation, but will not end up there. Much will depend on the Fed which “faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation.”
Tags: Begley, Dilemma, Economic policies, Economist, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Rates, Recession, Stagflation, Stagflation. Dire, Trump, U.S.
Fortune (August 2)
“Recent college graduates face one of the toughest job markets in years.” Some have attributed this to AI and automation, but others like Berkeley economist Brad DeLong believe “larger forces are at work.” He believes “the challenges confronting young job-seekers today are primarily driven by widespread policy uncertainty and a sluggish economy.” Basically, these unlucky “new entrants to the job market are bearing the brunt of the retreat to risk aversion.”
Tags: AI, Automation, Berkeley, Challenges, College graduates, DeLong, Economist, Job markets, Job seekers, Policy uncertainty, Sluggish economy, Toughest
Wall Street Journal (May 13)
“Economist Burton Malkiel might have called the stock market ‘a random walk,’ but investors could at least use earnings guidance by companies as road signs. Now they are largely walking blind.” With on-again, off-again tariffs, “nobody knows what the economy will look like in a few months’ time.” Some companies are leaning heavily on assumptions. “Others, such as General Motors, PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble, have lowered targets, while Volkswagen excluded tariffs from its outlook. United Airlines, creatively, offered one scenario for a stable environment and another for a recession.” Other companies have simply thrown in the towel. “Ford, Jeep-owner Stellantis, Delta Air Lines, and UPS took another route, scrapping their 2025 guidance altogether.”
Tags: Assumptions, Blind, Delta Air Lines, Earnings guidance, Economist, Economy, Ford, GM, Investors, Malkiel, Outlook, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Random walk, Recession, Scenario, Stable, Stellantis, Stock market, Targets, Tariffs, United Airlines, Volkswagen
Business Insider (May 2)
“Investors are on edge as President Donald Trump’s ’America First’ policies seem only to diminish the appeal of US assets, but to famed economist Nouriel Roubini, the fears are overblown.” This may seem surprising for the economist known as ‘Doctor Doom,’ but he is also known a contrarian who now “sees US markets constraining Trump’s most aggressive policies, and ensuring a continuation of American exceptionalism.” He urges investors now to discount the nation’s key advantage: technological leadership.
Tags: Advantage, America first, Appeal, Assets, Contrarian, Diminish, Doctor Doom, Economist, Exceptionalism, Fears, On edge, Overblown, Roubini, Trump, U.S.
Fortune (May 6)
“Last year’s consensus was that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession, but that didn’t happen. This year’s consensus is that we’ll have a soft landing, in which the economy slows but won’t tip into a recession.” But contrarians like Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi’s chief U.S. economist, believe “a hard landing” is now imminent.
Tags: Citi, Consensus, Contrarians, Economist, Economy, Hard landing, Hollenhorst, Imminent, Recession, Slows, Soft landing, U.S.
Market Watch (March 1)
“Market participants came into 2024 looking for six or more quarter percentage point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but now see only three. They should further revise that all the way down to zero,” based on a note, released Friday, from Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist.
Tags: 2024, Apollo Global Management, Economist, Fed, Interest rate cuts, Market, Note, Participants, Quarter percentage point, Six, Slok, Three, Zero
The Economist (June 4)
“For the past two years Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has pursued a zany policy of trying to bring down inflation by making borrowing cheaper. It is precisely the opposite of what any mainstream economist would advise, and it was never going to work.” His new cabinet “includes Mehmet Simsek, a voice of economic orthodoxy.” The new treasury and finance minister has said “Turkey has no choice left but to return to a rational basis” for policymaking. “Such words will be music to the ears of many foreign investors, who have given up on Turkey over the past couple of years. But they will not count for much unless they are backed up by concrete steps to fix the country’s economy.”
Tags: Borrowing, Cabinet, Cheaper, Economist, Erdogan, Finance Minister, Inflation, Mainstream, Orthodoxy, Policy, Rational, Simsek, Treasury, Turkey
Washington Post (November 19)
“In 1798, British economist Thomas Malthus forecast that an increasing population would soon outstrip, disastrously, nature’s capacity to feed so many people…. And yet here we are: The world’s population has octupled since Malthus’s day, more than doubled since 1968, and living standards around the world have vastly, though unevenly, improved during that time.” It is worth celebrating November 15, the day “Planet Earth welcomed its eight-billionth living inhabitant.”
Tags: 1798, Celebrating, Earth, Economist, Forecast, Inhabitant, Living standards, Malthus, Nature’s capacity, Octupled, Outstrip, Population
Bloomberg (January 10)
Today’s “easy-money policies” appear to be “setting up global markets for the next Minsky Moment.” If economist Hyman Minsky is right and the modern “economic cycle is driven more by surges in the banking system and in the supply of credit,” we can expect a tremendous crash when it ultimately comes.
Fortune (December 5)
“The chances of the U.K. canceling Brexit have just shot up.” JP Morgan economist Malcolm Barr told clients, “the chances of no Brexit had doubled from 20% to 40%, the chances of the U.K. leaving the EU without a deal had halved from 20% to 10%, and the chances of an ‘orderly negotiated Brexit’ were down from 60% to 50%.”
