Bloomberg (April 10)
“Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on Anthropic.” The AI firm’s new Mythos system is thought to be “capable of identifying and then exploiting vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser.” The leaders, who represented global systemically important banks, were summoned “to make sure banks are aware of possible future risks… and are taking precautions to defend their systems.”
Tags: AI, Anthropic, Bessent, Exploiting, Fed, Future risks, GSIB, Identifying, Meeting, Mythos, Operating system, Powell, Treasury, Urgent, Vulnerabilities, Wall Street, Web browser
Financial Times (April 9)
“Among the many consequences of the stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz, it seems that we may look back on this as the week in which one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools was shown to be a weakened stick. Threatening to limit access to the global dollar system now seems less fearsome.” US Treasury sanctions cover the entire country of Iran. “But not only does this not appear to have prevented it from selling oil while at war with the US, it has not seemed to stop it from charging ransom fees to international shipping seeking to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Tags: Consequences, Fearsome, Geopolitical tools, Global dollar system, Iran, Oil, Ransom fees, Sanctions, Stand-off, Strait of Hormuz, Threatening, Treasury, U.S., Weakened
Barron’s (February 11)
“The U.S. Treasury market has been awfully steady lately. It’s a blessing for the economy and stocks. The 10-year Treasury note —a key debt issued by the U.S. government—has traded in a 0.39 percentage point range over the past six months, its narrowest since October 2018, according to Dow Jones Market data team.”
Tags: 0.39, 2018, Blessing, Debt, Economy, Government, Market, Narrowest, Range, Steady, Stocks, Treasury, U.S.
The Guardian (November 19)
“The Home Office has announced another set of measures designed to signal ever more ferocious intent to control the nation’s borders.” This is a mistake, apparently to appease “the irate chorus that fulminates against perceived inundation by foreigners.” It overlooks the reality of declining migration and logical outcomes. “With migration patterns simply following the current [downward] trajectory,” undesirable consequences need to be addressed. Who will provide social care when the already “struggling sector” is facing “a mounting recruitment crisis”? Without students from overseas, “many universities… will be pushed over the brink.” On top of it all, the contracting ratio of working-age adults will make growth ”harder to achieve” and decrease “Treasury revenues… with painful fiscal consequences.”
Tags: Borders, Consequences, Control, Ferocious, Foreigners, Home Office, Migration, Overseas, Recruitment crisis, Revenues, Social care, Students, Treasury, Universities, Working-age
Bloomberg (September 13)
“President Donald Trump’s most concrete step to rein in unprecedented US budget deficits — sweeping tariff hikes — faces the danger of a legal reversal that would put the nation’s finances on an even shakier footing.” While expert opinion is somewhat divided on the rationale for tariffs, “few disagree that tariff hikes are indeed generating a new stream of cash for the Treasury,” a stream that could disappear with the impending Supreme Court decision, placing “Trump’s deficit plan at risk.”
Tags: Budget deficits, Danger, Decision, Expert, Finances, Legal reversal, Opinion, Rationale, Risk, Shakier, Supreme Court, Tariff hikes, Treasury, Trump, U.S., Unprecedented
MarketWatch (May 22)
“A soaring 30-year Treasury yield has grabbed the lion’s share of attention lately when it comes to signaling how the U.S. fiscal outlook is rattling investors.” What’s happening in Japan, as bond yields surge, is a “less-talked-about factor weighing on sentiment.” Yields on 30-year JGBs rose “to almost 3.17% on Thursday, the highest in roughly 25 years of record-keeping” while 40-year yields “jumped to 3.67%, the highest level since its inception in 2007.” The “sharply higher yields on Japanese government bonds” may already be enticing “the country’s investors to return home.” It is likely that “the recent selloff in the Japanese bond market may have played at least some role in the Treasury market’s own selloff of the longest-dated government maturity Thursday morning.”
Tags: 3.67%, 30-year, 40 year, Bond yields, Enticing, Fiscal outlook, Investors, JGBs, Rattling, Sentiment, Soaring, Surge, Treasury, U.S.
Fortune (February 11)
President Donald Trump’s “penny proposal” misses the “real villains:” nickels. Trump has “directed the Treasury to kill pennies, which have lost the U.S. Mint money for decades, as every penny costs 3.7 cents to produce. Nickels are even more wasteful, though, costing 13 cents each to produce, and eliminating pennies could push up demand for five-cent pieces.”
Tags: Demand, Eliminating, MINT, Money, Nickels, Pennies, Produce, Treasury, Trump, U.S., Villains, Wasteful
The Economist (June 4)
“For the past two years Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has pursued a zany policy of trying to bring down inflation by making borrowing cheaper. It is precisely the opposite of what any mainstream economist would advise, and it was never going to work.” His new cabinet “includes Mehmet Simsek, a voice of economic orthodoxy.” The new treasury and finance minister has said “Turkey has no choice left but to return to a rational basis” for policymaking. “Such words will be music to the ears of many foreign investors, who have given up on Turkey over the past couple of years. But they will not count for much unless they are backed up by concrete steps to fix the country’s economy.”
Tags: Borrowing, Cabinet, Cheaper, Economist, Erdogan, Finance Minister, Inflation, Mainstream, Orthodoxy, Policy, Rational, Simsek, Treasury, Turkey
Financial Times (February 19)
The Bank of Japan’s “ultra-loose policy is now on a somewhat pre-determined path — towards (if not quite through) the exit door.” The impact of investment flows retreating to Japan may be “most significant for the US Treasury market, where Japan is the largest single foreign holder.” But Japanese investors also hold sizeable market shares “in Australia, New Zealand and parts of western Europe. A shift in policy under Ueda will matter not just for Japan, but for pockets of global debt markets, too.”
Tags: Australia, BOJ, Europe, Exit, Impact, Investment flows, Investors, Japan, Market shares, New Zealand, Retreating, Sizeable, Treasury, U.S., Ueda, Ultra-loose policy
The Independent (April 28)
“There can be no doubt that the UK’s economic situation is much more likely to deteriorate than improve in the next few years.” Higher taxes and/or lower benefits will be essential to strengthening the Treasury. “All of this adds to stagnant or declining living standards…. No wonder, then, that consumer confidence is likely to become weaker as the uncertainties crowd in.” But the biggest economic hurdle will be crimped investment. “Business does not want to invest in Britain unless they can be sure of a return on those funds after the UK loses its easy access to the single market.”
Tags: Benefits, Consumer confidence, Deteriorate, Investment. Brexit, Living standards, Single market, Taxes, Treasury, UK
