The Guardian (November 19)
“The Home Office has announced another set of measures designed to signal ever more ferocious intent to control the nation’s borders.” This is a mistake, apparently to appease “the irate chorus that fulminates against perceived inundation by foreigners.” It overlooks the reality of declining migration and logical outcomes. “With migration patterns simply following the current [downward] trajectory,” undesirable consequences need to be addressed. Who will provide social care when the already “struggling sector” is facing “a mounting recruitment crisis”? Without students from overseas, “many universities… will be pushed over the brink.” On top of it all, the contracting ratio of working-age adults will make growth ”harder to achieve” and decrease “Treasury revenues… with painful fiscal consequences.”
Tags: Borders, Consequences, Control, Ferocious, Foreigners, Home Office, Migration, Overseas, Recruitment crisis, Revenues, Social care, Students, Treasury, Universities, Working-age
Fortune (January 20)
“Two-thirds of the world’s population already lives in countries where fertility is below” the replacement rate (an average fertility rate of 2.1 children per female). “Some of those economies are on track to see 20%-50% population declines by 2100, requiring big changes to societies and governments.” Younger people will also face a growing burden. “The world’s support ratio was 9.4 in 1997, or more than nine working-age people supporting one older person,” but this is expected to drop to just 3.9 by 2050 and currently stands at 6.5.
Tags: 1997, 2050, 2100, Burden, Children, Economies, Fertility, Governments, Population declines, Replacement rate, Support ratio, Two-thirds, Working-age
Hindustan Times (May 5)
“India entered into a new age as the world’s largest country in 2023.” With a large percentage of its population falling into working age, India has “the potential to produce a ‘phenomenal’ demographic dividend to catapult India into the top three economies of the world in the next 25 years.” To do so, however, “harnessing the gender dividend is even more critical and transformational.”
Tags: Catapult, Critical, Demographic, Dividend, Economies, Gender, Harnessing, India, Phenomenal, Population, Potential, Working-age, World’s largest
Bloomberg Businessweek (February 14)
After enjoying a modest “baby bump,” births in China “are again trending down, despite the two-child policy.” Beijing’s inability “to ignite a baby boom is cause for concern in policy circles.” Recently, the China Daily, a state-owned newspaper, wrote, “There is growing concern that the country may experience a demographic time bomb, because in the decades to come the number of young people is likely to fall below the number required to maintain an optimum level of employment.” For that matter, China’s working-age population has “been shrinking since 2012 and fell by 5 million last year.”0
Tags: Baby bump, Births, China, China Daily, Concern, Demographic time bomb, Optimum employment, Population, Shrinking, Working-age
Wall Street Journal (March 11)
Japan may be at the leading edge, but population graying is a truly global phenomenon requiring new approaches. “As the over-60 population grows much faster than the younger working-age cohorts, while life expectancy increases, the 20th-century model of work and retirement becomes increasingly unsuitable for economic growth. The key will be finding new solutions to engage older Americans in the workforce.”
Tags: Economic growth, Engage, Graying, Japan, Life expectancy, Over-60, Population, Retirement, Solutions, U.S., Unsuitable, Work, Workforce, Working-age
