Time (December 13)
“Low fertility threatens to undermine South Korea’s economic future by shrinking its workforce and slowing consumption. It also casts a long shadow over national security by reducing the pool of men available to join the military to counter threats from North Korea.” The number of expected babies per woman in South Korea is forecast to fall to 0.72 in 2023 and “will continue to fall through 2025,” when it will likely bottom out at 0.65.
Tags: Economic future, Fertility, Low, National security, North Korea, Shrinking, Slowing consumption, South Korea, Threats, Undermine, Workforce
Financial Times (February 26)
These are, according to Citigroup analysts, “distinctly echoey times.” Their “research suggests that, if it is not careful, China may be on track for a new wave of Japanification.” China is now remarkably similar to Japan’s post-property bubble era in, for example, demographics. China’s population is “now shrinking as Japan’s did years earlier… a reminder that after 1990, Japan’s housing price index fell as the 35- to 54-year-old cohort decreased.” These and other factors call for warnings about “the potential risks for China’s banking system.”
Tags: 1990, Analysts, China, China’s banking system, Citigroup, Demographics, Echoey, Housing price index, Japanification, Population, Property bubble, Research, Risks, Shrinking, Warnings
Vox (November 21)
“College enrollment began slowly receding after the millennial enrollment wave peaked in 2010, particularly in regions that were already experiencing below-average birth rates while simultaneously losing population to out-migration.” Still worse is coming to higher education in the U.S. “The empty factories and abandoned shopping malls littering the American landscape may soon be joined by ghost colleges, victims of an existential struggle for reinvention, waged against a ticking clock of shrinking student bodies”
Tags: Abandoned, Birth rates, Colleges, Empty factories, Enrollment, Higher education, Millennial, Out-migration, Peaked, Population, Receding, Shopping malls, Shrinking, Student bodies, U.S.
Financial Times (August 25)
“The US stock market this week reached twin landmarks: an all-time high, and the longest bull run in history. Yet it is shrinking…. The tally of listed domestic companies in the US has almost halved from 8,090 in 1996 to 4,336 last year.”
Bloomberg Businessweek (February 14)
After enjoying a modest “baby bump,” births in China “are again trending down, despite the two-child policy.” Beijing’s inability “to ignite a baby boom is cause for concern in policy circles.” Recently, the China Daily, a state-owned newspaper, wrote, “There is growing concern that the country may experience a demographic time bomb, because in the decades to come the number of young people is likely to fall below the number required to maintain an optimum level of employment.” For that matter, China’s working-age population has “been shrinking since 2012 and fell by 5 million last year.”0
Tags: Baby bump, Births, China, China Daily, Concern, Demographic time bomb, Optimum employment, Population, Shrinking, Working-age
Bloomberg (August 3)
“Something may be stirring deep within Japan’s labor market. The country’s aging and shrinking population is traditionally thought of as a deflationary factor, driving down potential growth. Yet after years of resisting wage hikes, companies are starting to recognize the need to lock in staff before they literally disappear.”0
Tags: Aging, Deflationary, Growth, Japan, Labor market, Population, Shrinking, Staff, Wage hikes
New York Times (February 11)
“It is inevitable that India will eventually grow faster than China for the simple mathematical reason that it is easier to make a small economy bigger than it is to increase the size of a larger one.” On top of that, “China’s population is aging and its labor force is shrinking whereas about half of Indians are 25 or younger and its work force will be expanding for many years to come.”
Tags: Aging, China, Economy, Expanding, India, Labor force, Population, Shrinking
