Wall Street Journal (January 29)
A “deflation doom loop” is “trapping China’s economy.” Despite the nation’s “extraordinary leaps in cutting-edge technology, from artificial intelligence to robotics,” China’s “relentless pursuit of growth through manufacturing has also created a lopsided economy, with much of it stuck in a deflationary spiral. China’s GDP deflator, a broad price gauge, has been negative since 2023, a sign of inadequate demand at home.”
Tags: 2023, AI, China, Deflationary spiral, Doom loop, Economy, GDP deflator, Growth, Lopsided, Manufacturing, Negative, Robotics, Technology
Market Watch (January 14)
“For investors, a meaningful erosion of central-bank independence would weaken the Fed’s inflation-targeting discipline and be negative for both stocks and bonds, as markets have long operated under the assumption that Fed independence will hold.” Although “we do not expect the Trump administration to capture the Federal Reserve, continued pressure on central-bank independence is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.” Ultimately, “market calm is conditional on the Senate acting as a backstop to Fed independence. If that condition is misread, markets will break down.”
Tags: Bonds, Capture, Central bank, Discipline, Dollar, Erosion, Fed, Independence, Inflation, Investors, Markets, Negative, Senate, Stocks, Trump, U.S., Weaken
Reuters (July 3)
“Big investors are mobilising to trade through weeks packed with wild-card events that may shatter the calm in stock markets and drive big swings for assets they see as exposed to both positive or negative surprises, from gold to corporate credit.”
Tags: Assets, Big swings, Calm, Corporate credit, Exposed, Gold, Investors, Negative, Positive, Shatter, Stock markets, Surprises, Trade, Wild-card events
Fortune (March 22)
“Investor Danny Moses, best known for his oracular bet against mortgage-backed debt before the 2008 stock market crash, is warning of another economic red flag.” Moses believes “the market has not yet accounted for the negative economic impact of the mass cuts to government jobs carried out by the Elon Musk-championed Department of Government Efficiency.” While “disruptions in consumer confidence” are already apparent, they “have yet to be priced into the market.” He expects an “unvirtuous cycle” to result “as more fired federal workers look for private sector jobs” and “find fewer opportunities because of shrinking revenue streams in government contracts.”
Tags: 2008, Debt, Disruptions, DOGE, Economic, Government jobs, Impact, Investor, Mass cuts, Mortgage-backed, Moses, Musk, Negative, Private-sector, Red flag, Stock market crash, Unvirtuous cycle, Warning
Barron’s (January 3)
“Of all the fearless forecasts put out there for the new year, one conspicuously missing from those lists is probably the easiest one: The United States of America will lose its last remaining triple-A credit rating.” Standard & Poor’s was the first to lower its rating on U.S. government debt in 2011. In 2023, “Fitch Ratings followed suit.” That November, Moody’s Investors Service “lowered its outlook to negative.” It seems inevitable, especially given Trump’s desire for tax cuts, that Moody’s will eventually lower its Aaa rating as well. “Given the lack of serious measures, so far, to slow the government debt growth, the U.S.A. doesn’t merit a triple-A rating.”
Tags: 2011, 2023, Credit rating, Fearless, Fitch, Forecasts, Government debt, Inevitable, Lower, Merit, Moody's, Negative, Outlook, Rating, S&P, Tax cuts, Triple-A, Trump, U.S.
Foreign Policy (March 22)
Cuba “is experiencing its worst economic crisis since the end of the Cold War,” and the public is becoming more dismissive to government attempts to assign blame to outside interference. “The fresh demonstrations show that Havana’s role in the economic crisis has become more central in the public eye.” But “whether negative public opinion can lead to political change is another question.”
Tags: Blame, Cold war, Cuba, Demonstrations, Dismissive, Economic crisis, Government, Havana, Interference, Negative, Outside, Political change, Public, Public opinion
The Korea Economic Daily (June 15)
“Everything Asian policymakers were sure they knew about 2023 is going sideways.” When the year opened, “conventional wisdom” expected “Chinese growth would help the region make up for lost economic time.” Now the worry “is about deflation risks as factory-gate prices go negative” with consumer prices in China “on the verge of contraction.” Its exports are “cratering,” but China’s falling imports are “the bigger problem for Korea, and Asia more broadly.” In May, China’s imports fell by 4.5%, “dampening hopes that post-pandemic ‘revenge spending’ by 1.4 billion Chinese would propel Asian growth sharply higher.”
Tags: Asia, China, Consumer prices, Contraction, Cratering, Deflation risks, Exports, Factory-gate prices, Growth, Imports, Korea, Negative, Policymakers, Sideways
WARC (June 2)
“Sponsors that made a relatively sound bet on one of the major global sporting events could not have foreseen the pandemic. Now, with the games an increasingly controversial topic, sponsors are navigating negative public opinion.” As they “worry about the risks of sponsoring an event opposed by a majority of the country” and focus on avoiding negative exposure, some Olympic sponsors have given up on recouping their investments.
Tags: Controversial, Doubts, Exposure, Foreseen, Negative, Olympics, Pandemic, Public opinion, Risks, Sponsors, Sporting events, Worry
Investment & Pensions Europe (October Issue)
“Interest rates in Japan have hovered around zero for about two decades. Since 2016, they have been negative.” Elsewhere, “the daunting prospects” of this phenomenon are only “starting to enter the collective consciousness of investors.” Other countries are now “watching as benchmark yields breach the zero level and stay there.” They may have much to learn from Japanese investors who “have lived through–and continue to manage investments–in this low rate environment.”
Tags: Benchmark yields, Consciousness, Daunting, Interest rates, Investors, Japan, Negative, Zero
Reuters (June 28)
“British consumers have turned gloomier about the economy and the outlook for their personal finances,” according to a consumer-sentiment survey. “The GfK consumer sentiment index—which has been negative since shortly before the June 2016 Brexit referendum—fell to -13 in June from May’s seven-month high of -10.” This is just one of the signs pointing to “a lacklustre second quarter for the economy.”
Tags: Brexit, Consumer sentiment, Consumers, Economy, GfK, Gloomier, Lacklustre, Negative, Outlook, Personal finances, Referendum, UK
