Barron’s (January 3)
“Of all the fearless forecasts put out there for the new year, one conspicuously missing from those lists is probably the easiest one: The United States of America will lose its last remaining triple-A credit rating.” Standard & Poor’s was the first to lower its rating on U.S. government debt in 2011. In 2023, “Fitch Ratings followed suit.” That November, Moody’s Investors Service “lowered its outlook to negative.” It seems inevitable, especially given Trump’s desire for tax cuts, that Moody’s will eventually lower its Aaa rating as well. “Given the lack of serious measures, so far, to slow the government debt growth, the U.S.A. doesn’t merit a triple-A rating.”
Tags: 2011, 2023, Credit rating, Fearless, Fitch, Forecasts, Government debt, Inevitable, Lower, Merit, Moody's, Negative, Outlook, Rating, S&P, Tax cuts, Triple-A, Trump, U.S.
Foreign Policy (August 1)
The U.S. economic pivot to Asia began in 2011, but its tenor “has switched from economic offense to defense.” In the intervening years, “America’s positive economic agenda in Asia—opening markets, lowering barriers to trade, sealing agreements—bore virtually no fruit.” Largely driven by China, the U.S. instead raised tariffs, imposed sanctions, and “moved to de-risk and ‘friendshore’” supply chains.
Tags: 2011, Agenda, Agreements, Asia, China, De-risk, Defense, Economic offense, Economic pivot, Friendshore, Lowering barriers, Opening markets, Positive, Sanctions, Tariffs, Trade, U.S.
CNN (June 17)
“Mexico is enduring its most expansive and severe drought since 2011, affecting nearly 90% of the country. Water has become an increasingly fraught topic, with fears cities — including Mexico City — could be barreling toward a ‘day zero,’ on which water runs dry.”
Tags: 2011, Cities, Day Zero, Drought, Dry, Enduring, Expansive, Fears, Mexico, Mexico City, Severe, Water
Bloomberg (June 17)
“China’s home prices fell at a faster pace in May, as the country’s most forceful efforts to support the property market took time to revive demand.” Existing home values dropped by 1%, “the sharpest decline since at least 2011.” Oversupply is “dragging prices lower, giving people less reason to invest in property.” Meanwhile, “investors and analysts remain skeptical” that the government’s recent measures to revive the sector “will be sufficient” given the “funding revealed so far and the slow progress of existing trial programs in several cities.”
Tags: 2011, Analysts, China, Decline, Existing homes, Home prices, Investors, Lower, May, Oversupply, Prices, Property, Skeptical
The Economist (December 17)
“Japanese firms spent a record $80 billion on some 620 foreign companies in 2011…, exceeding the previous record of 466 deals worth $75 billion in 2008.” This major shopping spree is different. Corporate Japan’s acquisitions of the 1980s showed strength. “This time, it is a symptom of weakness.” Multiple calamities made 2011 “wretched” for Japan and, due to long-term demographics, “Japanese firms find it nearly impossible to expand domestically.”
Tags: 2011, Calamities, Demographics, Japan, M&A, Overseas
Economist (December 9)
A divergence in growth between “the world’s big three” during 2011 may “compound the risks in each one.” In Europe, growth will slow as governments tighten spending. The euro zone will also face continued stress over both its currency and banking model. The U.S. could grow at a rapid 4% thanks to new tax cuts, but face inflationary pressure and even “a bond-market bust” as the deficit soars. Emerging markets will walk a tight-rope between risking inflation by doing too little and dampening growth by doing too much. “Either way, the chances of a macroeconomic shock emanating from the emerging world are rising steeply.” For the record, the Economist still views Japan as “an economic heavyweight,” but believes Japan is less likely to impact the global economy with surprises in 2011.
Tags: 2011, Economic outlook, Emerging markets, Europe, Japan, U.S.
