Barron’s (February 23)
“Markets are now pricing for the sweet spot of reflation toward equilibrium. But too much of a good thing is, well, not a good thing. And with the Biden administration proposing a fiscal stimulus package nearly three times as large as the U.S. output gap and given a probable improvement in household demand as more Americans are vaccinated, the risk of overheating is not trivial.”
Tags: Biden, Equilibrium, Fiscal stimulus, Household demand, Markets, Overheating, Pricing, Reflation, Risk, Sweet spot, U.S., Vaccinated
Financial Times (March 14)
The Japanese stock market resembles “the ghost ship Mary Celeste.” Strewn around the decks are signs that the ship should be hopping with activity: the Topix index at a 14-month high, identifiable value stocks in abundance, a comfortably-positioned yen, fresh legalisation of casinos in the bag and a run of record share buybacks…. And yet there is silence.” Volumes have been low during the last three weeks and “overseas investors have been net sellers…with up to Y78bn leaving the index.” This suggests little wind remains in the Abenomics sails and, quite possibly, that traders are cautious ahead of developments from the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump. But it could also mean that overseas investors have written “Japan off as a credible, reform-minded play on global growth and domestic reflation.”
Tags: Abenomics, Buybacks, Casinos, Fed, Investors, Japan, Mary Celeste, Reflation, Topix, Trump Growth, Value stocks, Volumes, Yen
Bloomberg (January 5)
“From goods leaving the factory floor in China’s industrial towns to gasoline at the pump in Europe and America, prices that stayed low for years are finally going up.” The reflation narrative leaves most policymakers hopeful and a few giddy, but doubts linger about the durability of the recovery.
Tags: Doubts, Durability, Europe, Factories, Gasoline, Policymakers, Recovery, Reflation, U.S.
The Economist (May 18, 2013)
Shinzo Abe is defying expectations. “He has put Japan on a regime of ‘Abenomics’, a mix of reflation, government spending and a growth strategy designed to jolt the economy out of the suspended animation that has gripped it for more than two decades. He has supercharged Japan’s once-fearsome bureaucracy to make government vigorous again.”
Tags: Abenomics, Expectations, Government, Growth strategy, Japan, Reflation, Shinzo Abe, Spending