Reuters (February 9)
“Sanae Takaichi has curb-stomped the competition. Her Liberal Democratic Party took 316 out of 465 seats…delivering the arch-conservative prime minister her country’s first post-war single-party supermajority.” While “investors may hope the ruling party’s historic comeback relieves pressure to cooperate with a fiscally profligate opposition,” that is unlikely. Her desire to revive “the heavily indebted $4 trillion economy” and return to fiscal stimulus will prove costly. Her “desire for a regular army makes expensive militarisation look more certain.” All of these “stated ambitions” augur “more turmoil for markets.”
Tags: Army, Conservative, Curb-stomped, Economy, Expensive, Fiscal stimulus, Hope, Indebted, Investors, Japan, LDP, Militarisation, Prime minister, Supermajority, Takaichi, Turmoil
Bloomberg (October 28)
“Political uncertainty will likely weigh on sentiment for investors in Japanese assets after the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party failed to win a majority in parliament for the first time since 2009.” Though this uncertainty was not priced in, there may still be buying on dips, and “global investors are still pinning hopes on Japan’s improving corporate governance as a factor to buy equities.”
Tags: Assets, Coalition, Corporate governance, Dips, Failed, Investors, Japan, LDP, Majority, Parliament, Political uncertainty, Sentiment
Wall Street Journal (June 11)
“Japan is fumbling what looks like its last chance to avoid an unnecessary and economically damaging sales-tax hike.” The LDP came out with “a fresh commitment to increase the tax to 10% from 8% in October.” Since Prime Minister Abe returned “to office in 2012, Japan has recorded its longest period of nominal growth since the country’s asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. Gains in Japan’s Topix stock index beat all large developed markets outside the U.S. over the same period. There is no pressing need to junk that promising record now.”
Tags: Abe, Asset bubble, Damaging, Fumbling, Growth, Japan, LDP, Sales-tax hike, Topix, U.S., Unnecessary
The Economist (October 28)
Unlike Theresa May’s losing gamble, Shinzo Abe’s snap election “paid off handsomely.” The result of the gutsy move was hardly certain. “Rarely has such an unpopular leader won a free and fair election so lopsidedly. Only about one-third of Japanese people approve of Shinzo Abe” while “a whopping 51% disapprove. Yet on October 22nd his Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner kept its two-thirds majority in the lower house.” For this unusual outcome, he owes the opposition, which “imploded,” a debt of gratitude.
Tags: Abe, Coalition, Election, Imploded, Japan, LDP, Lopsided, Majority, May, Opposition, UK, Unpopular
The Economist (December 15)
“Mr Abe’s gamble to dissolve the lower house of the Diet in November was his alone, opposed by many in his party. It has paid off handsomely, and he may now become one of Japan’s longest-serving post-war prime ministers.”
Bloomberg (July 18)
Japan needs to mend relationships with its neighbors. After the upper house Diet elections, “LDP leaders would be wise to focus their resources on overcoming opposition to the most difficult structural reforms. That doesn’t mean Japan can’t take measures it deems necessary to bolster its defenses, such as increasing its military budget, or even making cosmetic changes such as renaming its military the ‘National Defense Forces.’ Such decisions should be based on strategic concerns, not a desire to fire up patriotic fervor. They should be communicated to Beijing quietly but transparently, well in advance.”
Tags: Asia, China, Communication, Defense, Diet, Elections, Japan, LDP, Military, Relationships, Resources, Structural reforms
Washington Post (December 20)
“Proponents of the Obama administration’s ‘pivot,’ or rebalance of attention and resources, toward Asia should be heartened by the results of Japan’s parliamentary election. The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) landslide victory in the lower house Sunday augurs well for a reinvigorated relationship between the United States and Japan.”
