Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
Investment Week (July 17)
“BlackRock teams are ‘very concerned’ with capturing the tone of US President Donald Trump’s policy stance, to the extent that the asset management giant has spent time tracking the president’s use of capital letters in his social media.” For a while, they found the ratio of upper to lower case letters was a good indicator of the President’s tone, but their approach has been stymied because he now “writes everything in capitals.”
Tags: Asset management, BlackRock, Capital letters, Concerned, Indicator, Policy stance, President, Social media, Stymied, Tone, Tracking, Trump, U.S.
Washington Post (July 9)
The Sahm Rule is considered “the best available recession indicator.” From its nadir, the unemployment rate has risen nearly half a percentage point, which is the rule’s threshold signifying a new recession. “This indicator is flashing a warning sign for the United States. It doesn’t indicate a recession will definitely happen soon, but it is an important wake-up call, and the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention.”
Tags: Attention spans, Fed, Indicator, Nadir, Recession, Sahm Rule, U.S., Unemployment rate, Wake-up call, Warning sign
Reuters (April 1)
In March, the Japanese yen “lost around 8% against the dollar… dropping to a six-year low below 125 on Monday.” Some believe that level “raises alarm among Japanese authorities, as a previous drop to that level triggered verbal warnings by BOJ’s Kuroda.” However, in terms of the “real, effective exchange rate—an indicator that captures the international competitiveness of a currency,” the yen is performing even worse, having “slid to less than half” of 1995’s peak.
Tags: 1995, Alarm, Authorities, BOJ, Currency, Dollar, Effective exchange rate, Indicator, International competitiveness, Japan, Kuroda, Low, March, Verbal warnings, Yen
