Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
Barron’s (April 23)
“The global debt situation is raising alarms for the International Monetary Fund, which on Wednesday said ‘off-the-charts’ trade uncertainty was exacerbating a global debt load that it estimates crossed the $100 trillion level in 2024.” Current IMF projections call for “levels to rise further, with debt to global gross domestic product hitting 100% by the end of the decade,” but worldwide public debt “could soar to around 117% of GDP by 2027” in an extreme “adverse scenario,” though noting, “even that extreme scenario may be underestimating tail risk because trade and geoeconomic uncertainty has escalated, financial conditions have tightened, financial market volatility is visible and spending pressures have intensified.”
Tags: $100 trillion, 2024, Adverse scenario, Alarms, Exacerbating, GDP, Geoeconomic Financial conditions, Global debt, IMF, Market volatility, Off-the-charts, Spending pressures, Tail risk, Trade uncertainty, Underestimating
Financial Times (March 4)
“Washington’s greatest miscalculation may not be underestimating China’s chipmaking capabilities, but rather overlooking the forces that drive technological progress. History has shown that every industrial power that has tried to suppress a rival’s technological rise has, at best, delayed it — and at worst, accelerated it. Chips are no exception. The chip war is far from over, but in the long run, the US may have ensured that it is a war China cannot lose.”
Tags: Accelerated, Capabilities, China, Chip war, Chipmaking, Delayed, History, Industrial power, Miscalculation, Overlooking, Rival, Suppress, Technological progress, Underestimating, Washington
Forbes (June 24)
“While Trump and some in the White House argue that China has much more to lose in a trade war than does the United States, they may be underestimating Xi’s resolve to appear unwavering in the face of attacks from China’s main economic rival, the United States.”
Tags: China, Lose, Resolve, Rival, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Underestimating, Unwavering, White House, Xi
