Barron’s (April 23)
“The global debt situation is raising alarms for the International Monetary Fund, which on Wednesday said ‘off-the-charts’ trade uncertainty was exacerbating a global debt load that it estimates crossed the $100 trillion level in 2024.” Current IMF projections call for “levels to rise further, with debt to global gross domestic product hitting 100% by the end of the decade,” but worldwide public debt “could soar to around 117% of GDP by 2027” in an extreme “adverse scenario,” though noting, “even that extreme scenario may be underestimating tail risk because trade and geoeconomic uncertainty has escalated, financial conditions have tightened, financial market volatility is visible and spending pressures have intensified.”
Tags: $100 trillion, 2024, Adverse scenario, Alarms, Exacerbating, GDP, Geoeconomic Financial conditions, Global debt, IMF, Market volatility, Off-the-charts, Spending pressures, Tail risk, Trade uncertainty, Underestimating
Investment Week (May 14, 2013)
A recent sentiment poll by Bank of America Merrill Lynch shows that worries over the commodity sector are moving to the fore as fears over Europe dissipate. “A quarter of respondents to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly poll on manager sentiment said a commodity collapse is the number one tail risk, an increase from 18% in April.” In contrast, respondents identifying “EU sovereigns and banks as the number one tail risk dropped to 29% from 42% in April.”
Tags: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Banks, Commodities, EU, Fund managers, Sentiment, Sovereigns, Tail risk
Institutional Investor (May Issue)
Today’s investors are in some ways wiser from the lessons of 2008. “Investors are paying more attention to tail risks; they are more conscious of the need to carefully manage liabilities as well as assets; and they are appropriately more skeptical of reliance on third parties like rating agencies.” In other cases, however, investors have yet to learn the right lessons. Institutional Investor identifies four of these as “relying on stop losses, buying options, stress testing and crowding into certain trades.”
Today’s investors are in some ways wiser from the lessons of 2008. “Investors are paying more attention to tail risks; they are more conscious of the need to carefully manage liabilities as well as assets; and they are appropriately more skeptical of reliance on third parties like rating agencies.” In other cases, however, investors have yet to learn the right lessons. Institutional Investor identifies four of these as “relying on stop losses, buying options, stress testing and crowding into certain trades.”
Tags: Options, Rating agencies, Stop losses, Stress tests, Tail risk
