Fortune (September 18)
“Any prominent investor comparing China with Japan prior to its lost decades of stagnation ought to be alarming.” It’s even more alarming when it’s Ray Dalio, the founder of massive hedge fund, Bridgewater. Long known as China bull, he now “fears the property crisis in China has left local governments unable to service their debt by extracting equity through land sales” and that China’s economy now “faces problems as severe as Japan in 1990.”
Tags: Alarming, Bridgewater, China, Dalio, Debt, Economy, Equity, Founder, Hedge-fund, Investor, Japan, Local governments, Property crisis, Severe, Stagnation
Reuters (February 28)
China’s housing market seems to be approaching a paradigm shift. “The broad idea is to create a two-tier system. Local governments will rent out or sell flats below market prices to most residents, including some 300 million Chinese migrant workers who live far away from their hometowns in the mainland. Upgraders and investors could settle for a smaller private residential market, where regulators meddle less.”
Tags: China, Flats, Housing market, Investors, Local governments, Market prices, Migrant workers, Paradigm shift, Regulators, Rent, Residential, Residents, Sell, Two-tier system
Reuters (October 17)
“Local governments have long been a pump-primer of China’s growth, but declining state land sales revenue in the wake of an ongoing crackdown on debt in the sector has severely eroded their financial power – a situation exacerbated this year by China’s feeble growth, weak tax income and crippling COVID restrictions.” These bodies now face budget shortfalls of roughly $1 trillion. Amid China’s wobbly economy, “the timing couldn’t be worse.”
Tags: Budget shortfalls, China, COVID restrictions, Crackdown, Debt, Declining Land sales revenue, Economy, Eroded, Feeble, Financial power, Growth, Local governments, Pump-primer, Tax income
Wall Street Journal (July 10)
“The Government Accounting Standards Board has issued new rules that aim to crystallize government pension liabilities. It failed on that count, but it did succeed, albeit inadvertently, in making the case for defined-contribution plans.” By using artificially high expected rates of return in their calculations, local governments have created a massive pension liability that will eventually come due.
New York Times (August 14)
There is “a growing gloom for states and cities.” Struggling to balance budgets, city and state governments have cut 577,000 jobs since 2008. “Washington should have been trying to find a way to help states avoid the layoffs and cutbacks…. Instead, it seems to be doing everything possible to make the situation worse.” This includes “a budget deal that will probably lead to a significant reduction in federal aid; a bond downgrade that could eventually trickle down to the local and state level, making borrowing more expensive; and a stock market plunge that is bleeding state employee pension funds.”
Tags: Budgets, Cities, Local governments, Pension funds, States, U.S., Unemployment
