Harvard Business Review (October 17)
Artificial intelligence (AI) “is both far-reaching and fragile. Its long-term trajectory points toward redefining industries, reshaping work, and altering the balance of global power. In the near term, geopolitical rivalry combines with deregulatory policy and speculative capital, creating conditions that strongly resemble past bubbles. The lesson of history is not that bubbles render technologies worthless, but that they distort timing and expectations.”
Tags: AI, Bubbles, Deregulatory policy, Far-reaching, Fragile, Geopolitical rivalry, Global power, Redefining industries, Reshaping work, Speculative capital, Timing, Trajectory
New York Times (June 18)
“China is unleashing a new export shock on the world.” Chinese goods, thwarted by Trump’s tariffs, are now “flooding countries from Southeast Asia to Europe to Latin America.” China does not seem to be following “the traditional trajectory of economies that move away from low-end manufacturing as they become more mature and developed.” Instead, it has doubled-down on manufacturing, which far exceeds domestic demand. As a result, the “countries that have borne the brunt of the jump in Chinese imports have also seen sharp declines in their own manufacturing, leading to job losses and bankruptcies.”
Tags: Bankruptcies, China, Chinese goods, Domestic demand, Doubled-down, Europe, Export shock, Flooding, Imports, Job losses, Latin America, Low-end manufacturing, Southeast Asia, Trajectory, Trump’s tariffs, Unleashing
Washington Post (June 15)
The “U.S. could lose more immigrants than it gains for first time in 50 years.” This would “mark a turning point in the country’s demographic and economic trajectory, and an abrupt shift from the nearly 3 million net migrants the United States gained just last year.” Negative migration “could become a drag on the U.S. labor force,” potentially slowing “economic growth and fueling inflation.”
Tags: 3 million, 50 years, Abrupt shift, Demographic, Drag, Economic growth, Inflation, Labor force, Migrants, Negative migration, Trajectory, Turning-point, U.S.
Forbes (September 20)
“Dalio hasn’t fled China. But the fact that the founder of the globe’s biggest hedge fund is raising warning flags matters. Not just because he’s the biggest of the big money, but because his pivot comes at a moment of maximum paranoia about China’s trajectory into 2025. This includes deflationary forces of the kind with which Tokyo is still grappling 30 years on.”
Tags: 2025, China, Dalio, Deflationary forces, Fled, Grappling, Hedge-fund, Maximum paranoia, Pivot, Tokyo, Trajectory, Warning flags
Washington Post (July 20)
We may be living in a “Goldilocks economy,” but it “has an end date.” Last year, the investors who “thought stagflation was here to stay were wrong, and they’ll be wrong again if they count on Goldilocks sticking around. Growth and inflation will line up sooner or later, and it’s the growth data that provides a better signal for the trajectory of the economy.”
Tags: End date, Goldilocks economy, Growth, Inflation, Investors, Last year, Signal, Stagflation, Trajectory, Wrong
Washington Post (August 17)
“By next year, India will become the most populous nation. This, like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s splendidly insouciant visit to Taiwan, will diminish today’s fatalism about China — the fallacious assumption that its trajectory is inevitably upward, so it must be accommodated.” Chinese labor is now “increasingly expensive and decreasingly abundant,” as its population peaks and declines by roughly half.
Tags: Abundant, China, Diminish, Expensive, Fallacious, Fatalism, India, Labor, Peaks, Pelosi, Population, Populous, Taiwan, Trajectory
Oil Price (March 10)
“While no one can say for certain what the trajectory of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be, the economic warfare that is going on alongside it is very likely to destroy the current global trading system.” A fix could take a while. It took roughly 75 years to regain “stability” and “interconnection,” after the “worldwide trading system” was last destroyed with the outbreak of World War 1.
Tags: Conflict, Destroy, Economic warfare, Global trading system, Interconnection, Russian-Ukrainian, Stability, Trajectory, WWI
