Financial Times (June 8)
“Donald Trump’s gyrations on trade policy have not broken global financial markets just yet — but what is happening in Hong Kong shows they are feeling the strain.” For over a month, Hong Kong’s interest rates remained fixed at just above 0%, which is peculiar, “Its currency is pegged to the US dollar” so this presents a prime arbitrage opportunity, which is going untaken. “This little episode reveals a disturbing fragility. Markets may appear to be taking all of the Trumpian disruption in their stride, but when a dislocation of this sort persists for more than a month, it is a warning sign. Watch out for trouble ahead.”
Tags: 0%, Arbitrage, Broken, Currency, Dislocation, Dollar, Fragility, Global financial markets, Gyrations, Hong Kong, Interest rates, Peg, Strain, Trade policy, Trump, U.S.
Institutional Investor (January 28)
“With Trump once again using tariffs as a key tool in his trade policy, investors are bracing for renewed volatility,” especially given the “frantic pace of changes.” Some investors, however, “remain optimistic about Trump’s potential economic impact.” For example, “KKR’s Henry McVey believes that strong markets and robust corporate earnings will offset any geopolitical risks and tensions.”
Tags: Corporate earnings. Geopolitical risks, Economic impact, Frantic, Investors, KKR, Markets, McVey, Optimistic, Tariffs, Tensions, Tool, Trade policy, Trump, Volatility
Washington Post (July 30)
“Trump has repeatedly said he would protect American farmers in the trade war, last week setting aside $12 billion to help them, but he is facing pressure to extend aid to other industries…. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Monday estimated the total price tag could hit $39 billion if Trump compensated the losses across all industries.” But most “critics of Trump’s trade policy are calling on him to de-escalate the trade war rather than try to bail out the businesses hurt by it.”
Tags: Bail out, Chamber of Commerce, Compensate, De-escalate, Farmers, Industries, Losses, Trade policy, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
