The Economist (November 8)
Brazil and Russia are the “dodgiest duo” of the six susceptible emerging markets, which also include India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey. India and Indonesia now appear relatively “secure” while both South Africa and Turkey have bright spots. However, “the mixture Brazil and Russia face—falling currencies, high inflation and slow growth—could make 2015 a very bad year…. Even optimists think the pair will be lucky to grow in 2015. Pessimists see tumbling currencies, bond-market routs and even bank runs.
Tags: 2015, Bank runs, Bond market, Brazil, Dodgiest duo, Emerging markets, Falling currencies, India, Indonesia, Inflation, Russia, Slow growth, South Africa, Turkey
Euromoney (May 31)
“There’s one problem with a European deposit guarantee scheme: it won’t work.” Fear of bank runs is growing. To counter these fears, Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, president of the European Commission, has put forth “a banking union with integrated financial supervision and single deposit guarantee scheme” (DGS). However, a DGS would do little to calm fears of redenomination, even if it could be prepared in time. Greece has a DGS, yet 25% of bank deposits were withdrawn in the past 2 years, largely because savers worry their euro deposits will be redenominated into drachma. Furthermore, most DGS “protect against the failure of one or two banks, not the failure of a national banking system.”
“There’s one problem with a European deposit guarantee scheme: it won’t work.” Fear of bank runs is growing. To counter these fears, Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, president of the European Commission, has put forth “a banking union with integrated financial supervision and single deposit guarantee scheme” (DGS). However, a DGS would do little to calm fears of redenomination, even if it could be prepared in time. Greece has a DGS, yet 25% of bank deposits were withdrawn in the past 2 years, largely because savers worry their euro deposits will be redenominated into drachma. Furthermore, most DGS “protect against the failure of one or two banks, not the failure of a national banking system.”