Fortune (June 22)
“The U.S. farm economy has been fighting one battle after another in recent years, but a new threat is on the horizon that evokes memories of one of the worst agricultural disasters ever.” U.S. farmers were left reeling from low prices, tariffs and most recently Trump’s Iran War, which sent the prices for fertilizer and fuel soaring. Bankruptcies have been rising and now they may face the existential “risk of a ‘mini-Dust Bowl’ as a rare Super El Niño looms.”
Tags: Agricultural disasters, Bankruptcies, Existential, Farm economy, Farmers, Fertilizer, Fuel, Iran war, Low prices, Mini-Dust Bowl, Reeling, Risk, Super El Niño, Tariffs, Threat, Trump, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (June 10)
“A sharp fall in China’s crude oil imports during the Iran war has been instrumental in holding down oil prices and keeping the global economy humming.” China has essentially been “propping up the world economy” by reducing its oil imports by roughly three million barrels a day, “but analysts aren’t sure how long it can keep going.”
Tags: 3 MM bbl, China, Crude oil, Fall, Global economy, Imports, Instrumental, Iran war, Prices, Propping up, Reducing
New York Times (May 24)
Americans may be blind to “the war-driven supply shock already roiling manufacturing in Asia” which is especially “disrupting manufacturing and retail goods in Japan and South Korea” due to disrupted naphtha supply. “Because it serves as the building block for so many chemical products, naphtha is often called the ‘flour’ or ‘rice’ of industry.” So when the Iran War essentially “choked off” Persian Gulf shipping lanes, “more than 80 percent of Japan’s traditional supply lines for finished naphtha products” were “abruptly severed.” By some accounts, Japan and South Korea are consequently “the countries most exposed to the current supply disruptions.”
Tags: Asia, Blind, Exposed, Iran war, Japan, Manufacturing, Naphtha, Persian Gulf, Retail goods, Roiling, Shipping lanes, Shock, South Korea, U.S.
Bloomberg (May 21)
“The euro area will slow markedly while suffering the fastest inflation since 2023 as it succumbs to the energy-cost surge from the Iran war.” The European Commission issued new EU forecasts predicting that “output will rise 0.9% this year, notably below the 1.4% expansion last year, and 0.3 percentage points lower than expected in November. For 2027, it revised its outlook down to 1.2%.”
Tags: 2023, 2027, Energy-cost surge, EU, European Commission issued, Forecasts, Inflation, Iran war, Markedly, Output, Slow, Succumbs, Suffering
The Economist (May 12)
“Ten weeks into the Iran war, the great oil-market mystery is deepening. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, nearly 14m barrels of oil—14% of global output—are lost.” Yet somehow Brent crude is priced at “just $107 a barrel,” far lower than expected. “Petro-powers [especially the U.S.] outside the Gulf have turbocharged exports.” Inventories and strategic reserves [especially China’s] are being tapped liberally. “During the four weeks to May 10th the big oil-buying regions imported 11m b/d less petroleum” than a year prior. “America and China have bought the world time. It still faces a reckoning if Hormuz stays shut.”
Tags: $107, 14m b/d, Brent crude, China, Closed, Exports, Global output, Gulf, Inventories, Iran war, Mystery, Oil market, Petro-powers, Strait of Hormuz, Strategic reserves, Ten weeks, U.S.
MarketWatch (May 12)
“The most expensive part of the Iran war may not be the oil prices themselves. It may be uncertainty. Markets can absorb expensive energy; businesses can adapt to higher fuel costs if those costs remain stable and predictable. What becomes far more damaging is an environment in which prices swing violently, geopolitical risks shift by the hour and corporate decision-makers lose visibility over what comes next.”
Tags: Adapt, Businesses, Decision-makers, Energy, Environment, Expensive, Fuel costs, Geopolitical risks, Iran war, Markets, Oil prices, Predictable, Prices, Shift, Stable, Uncertainty
The Guardian (May 7)
Major appliance maker Whirlpool, is warning of a “‘recession-level’ slump” stemming from tariffs and the Iran war. Whirlpool has drastically cut its earnings forecast and hiked “prices by 10% with another 4% spike planned…. With consumers already worried about high grocery prices and escalating gas prices, many are holding off on big-ticket purchases like major appliances and instead trying to make do with what they already have.”
Tags: Appliances, Consumers, Cut, Earnings forecast, Gas, Grocery prices, Iran war, Recession, Slump, Tariffs, Warned, Whirlpool, Worried
The Times (May 6)
“The Iran war is causing global disruption as airlines battle fuel shortages and growing costs before the peak summer holiday season.” Current estimates suggest “airlines have cancelled more than 13,000 flights scheduled for this month as jet fuel shortages and high prices caused by the war on Iran cause disruption.”
Tags: 000 flights, 13, Airlines, Battle, Costs, Global disruption, High prices, Iran war, Jet fuel, Shortages, Summer holiday season
Bloomberg Businessweek (May edition)
“For decades, global economic crises have prompted the world to band together.” Such a “coordinated response” looks unlikely today. “As central bankers and heads of state contemplate the potential fallout from the Iran war and the biggest energy crunch in half a century… it looks increasingly unlikely there’ll be another spurt of unified action. The spirit of cooperation is no longer there…. After years of responding to economic shock after economic shock, we’ve been left woefully unprepared to deal with another one.”
Tags: Central bankers, Cooperation, Coordinated response, Economic crises, Energy crunch, Global, Heads of state, Iran war, Potential fallout, Unified action
Business Insider (April 22)
“First, the Iran war made flights more expensive. Now, it’s making them disappear.” Aviation analytics firm Cirium found that “19 of the world’s 20 largest airlines have cut flights in May.” Jet fuel prices have skyrocketed, “doubling in price to almost $200 a barrel. And as the war drags on, jet fuel is getting harder to come by.” Cirium had predicted annual flight capacity growth of 4%-6%, but now envisions a decline of up to 3%.
Tags: $200, Airlines, Analytics, Aviation, Capacity growth, Cirium, Doubling, Expensive, Flights, Iran war, Jet fuel, Prices, Skyrocketed
