Barron’s (October 21)
Tags: Elevated oil prices, Hope, Hostage crisis playbook, Inflation, Influence, Investors, Iran, Middle East, Options strategist, Respected, Standoff, Strait of Hormuz, Trump, U.S., Weakness
OilPrice.com (October 16)
Oil prices are heading for a “weekly gain as Hormuz attacks rattle markets…. Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz had driven oil flows sharply down. In the week to October 13, the daily average dropped to 11.62 million barrels, from a baseline of 17.15 million barrels daily.”
Tags: 11.62 MMbbl, Attacks, Baseline, Flows, Hormuz, Iran, Markets, Oil prices, Rattle, Strait of Hormuz, Strikes, Tankers, Weekly gain
OilPrice.com (August 2)
“When Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia quickly redirected its oil flows to the Red Sea. Now, that route has become dangerous because of the Houthi blockade, so Saudi is rerouting to Egypt” where two LNG tankers “just got struck by drones. OPEC’s number-one is running out of options to reroute its oil exports.”
Tags: Dangerous, Drones, Egypt, Houthi blockade, Iran, LNG tankers, Oil exports, OPEC, Options, Red Sea, Redirected, Reroute, Route, Saudi Arabia, Shut down, Strait of Hormuz
Barron’s (June 17)
President Trump inked an Iran Deal that “leaves more questions than answers.” While traders are “optimistic that one way or another, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil will resume its prewar flows,” their optimism is not shared by many analysts. “Oil analysts remain skeptical as to how soon, if ever, shipping will resume through the strait at prewar levels. That’s in part because it is unclear if Iran’s agreement not to charge tolls for 60 days, as stated in the memo, will become permanent.”
Tags: Analysts, Iran Deal, Oil, Optimistic, Permanent, Prewar flows, Questions, Reopen, Resume, Shipping, Skeptical, Strait of Hormuz, Tolls, Traders, Trump
The Times (June 2)
“Since the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, schools have closed in Dhaka, food prices have surged in Lagos, and air fares have risen in Seoul. And in Tokyo, otherwise respectable men have started exposing their hairy knees.” Cool Biz and Super Cool Biz had already toppled expectations for suits and ties, but “it took the Hormuz crisis, for a country that imports 90 per cent of its energy from the Middle East, to topple this final bastion of formality.” There have been dire consequences of the Iran war, but “none as bizarre as the fate that has befallen the Japanese.”
Tags: Air fares, Bizarre, Consequences, Cool Biz, Crisis, Dhaka, Dire, Energy, Food prices, Formality, Lagos, Middle East, Respectable, Schools, Seoul, Strait of Hormuz, Suits, Ties, Tokyo, War
Reuters (May 22)
“Asia buys about 80% of oil shipped through the shuttered Strait of Hormuz and stress in foreign exchange markets is one of the clearest signs that rising fuel prices are starting to hurt growth.” Asian governments have been left in “an unenviable position. The path to preserving growth is precarious because falling currencies can shake confidence and stoke inflation, but supporting them with higher rates means a hit for consumers and the economy’s growth engine on top of the fuel shock.”
Tags: Asia, Confidence, Consumers, Currencies, Forex, Governments, Growth, Inflation, Markets, Oil, Precarious, Prices, Rates, Shuttered, Strait of Hormuz, Unenviable
The Economist (May 12)
“Ten weeks into the Iran war, the great oil-market mystery is deepening. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, nearly 14m barrels of oil—14% of global output—are lost.” Yet somehow Brent crude is priced at “just $107 a barrel,” far lower than expected. “Petro-powers [especially the U.S.] outside the Gulf have turbocharged exports.” Inventories and strategic reserves [especially China’s] are being tapped liberally. “During the four weeks to May 10th the big oil-buying regions imported 11m b/d less petroleum” than a year prior. “America and China have bought the world time. It still faces a reckoning if Hormuz stays shut.”
Tags: $107, 14m b/d, Brent crude, China, Closed, Exports, Global output, Gulf, Inventories, Iran war, Mystery, Oil market, Petro-powers, Strait of Hormuz, Strategic reserves, Ten weeks, U.S.
The Economist (May 2)
“What was once unthinkable now appears unending. Most energy traders used to assume that, even under attack, Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil ordinarily flows.” It’s been two months since the Iran conflict broke out, “traffic in Hormuz remains near zero. Diplomatic efforts to get it flowing again are intermittent and inconclusive. Although a negotiated resolution is always possible, it is also conceivable that the strait could stay shut indefinitely.”
Tags: Attack, Chokepoint, Conceivable, Conflict, Diplomatic efforts, Energy traders, Inconclusive, Indefinitely, Intermittent, Iran, Negotiated, Oil, Resolution, Strait of Hormuz, Traffic, Unending, Unthinkable
Bloomberg (April 25)
“The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming.” The IEA believes “global oil demand is on track to slump the most in five years this month.” Things will surely get worse. “A billion barrels of supply loss is already all-but guaranteed — more than double the emergency inventories that governments released” since the conflict began. “With a stalemate between US President Donald Trump and his Iranian adversaries dragging on, the impact is increasingly shifting west — and to products that are central to consumers’ everyday lives.”
Tags: Adversaries, Alarm, Billion barrels, Conflict, Crash, Demand, Emergency inventories, Harsh, IEA, Impact, Iran, Oil shock, Rich world, Slump, Stalemate, Strait of Hormuz, Supply, Traders, Trump
Wall Street Journal (April 23)
“The conflict with Iran has entered a damaging new phase—a crippling limbo between war and peace that leaves the Strait of Hormuz closed and the prospect of escalation looming.” The explosions have stopped, “but the battle for control of the strait, one of the most important conduits of global commerce, is raging, leaving commodity traders on edge and helping push international oil prices above $100 a barrel on Wednesday.”
Tags: Battle, Commodity traders, Conflict, Crippling, Damaging, Escalation, Global commerce, Iran, Limbo, Looming, Oil prices, Peace, Raging, Strait of Hormuz, War
