Financial Times (July 28)
“The world was in striking agreement on one point: if Donald Trump went ahead with tariffs, it would strengthen the dollar and trigger stagflation.” It hasn’t, even though the “effective US tariff rate has already risen from 2.5 per cent to 15 per cent.” This outcome is unlikely to upturn conventional tariff wisdom. The U.S. is not “really enjoying a free lunch, taking in $300bn a year in tariff revenues with none of the expected heartburn.” It is much more probable that other factors, like AI’s explosive growth, have hidden the impact. The most likely culprit is “the timeworn mistake of employing simple models…. Complex economies are rarely shaped by just one factor, not even a shock as big as Trump’s tariffs.”
Tags: 15%, Agreement, AI, Complex economies, Conventional wisdom, Dollar, Free lunch, Hidden, Impact, Simple models, Stagflation, Tariffs, Trump, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (March 27)
“Well, that was fast, if predictable. We’re referring to the conventional wisdom that has moved without a moment of self-reflection from declaring Donald Trump to be a dangerous fascist to a hopeless incompetent.”
Tags: Conventional wisdom, Dangerous, Fascist, Hopeless, Incompetent, Predictable, Self-reflection, Trump, U.S.
Institutional Investor (August 4)
“Conventional wisdom isn’t always the wisest.” Conventional wisdom holds that rising interest rates are bad for REITs. This time around, however, REITs “offer value in the face of an interest rate hike. Real estate investment trusts and master limited partnerships are yield plays that should fare well if rates rise gradually.”
Tags: Conventional wisdom, Gradual, Interest rates, MLPs, Real estate, REITs
