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March 2018
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New York Times (February 6)

2018/ 02/ 07 by jd in Global News

Investors believe “policies to stoke growth are going to work so well that they will overheat the economy, and force the Federal Reserve to try to slow things down by raising interest rates faster than expected. Sometimes you can have too much of a good thing. Don’t forget what set off the plunge on Friday: better-than-expected job growth numbers.”


Barron’s (January 29)

2018/ 01/ 31 by jd in Global News

“Interest rates and volatility have been so low for so long that what was once abnormal is starting to look normal,” leading investment banks to adopt different approaches. Goldman has maintained its trading unit, “which lives or dies on volatility and which sealed Goldman’s reputation as the elite firm on Wall Street,” even though its revenue “has been reduced to crumbs.” In contrast, Morgan Stanley slashed the head count at its trading unit and has seen its market value surpass Goldman’s. But this could prove short-lived. “When trading conditions improve,” revenue from fixed income currency and commodities (FICC) “could bounce back quickly. No one else is as poised as Goldman to profit.”


Wall Street Journal (January 9)

2018/ 01/ 10 by jd in Global News

“The S&P 500 inched higher Monday, extending this year’s run of records. Stocks have begun 2018 on an upbeat note, buoyed by investors’ optimism over the global economy and bets that central banks are unlikely to pressure markets by raising interest rates faster than expected.”


Investment Week (November)

2017/ 11/ 30 by jd in Global News

The recent 0.25% increase “in interest rates announced by the Bank of England leaves us with no more clarity about the direction of monetary policy than we had before the micro-adjustment. Indeed, the increase raises rather more questions than it resolves.” The cut may simply reverse “the rather ill-judged post referendum cut,” Or it could be one off “nod to those worried about inflation becoming more embedded.” Or it could be “the start of a sequence that will see regular increases in rates along a path towards normalisation.”


Bloomberg (November 2)

2016/ 11/ 04 by jd in Global News

“The last time the Philippine peso neared 50 to the dollar, the global financial system was melting down and the central bank raised interest rates to defend it. This time, it has been driven by the president cursing his trading partners.”


Reuters (September 1)

2016/ 09/ 04 by jd in Global News

“Activity in China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded at its fastest pace in nearly two years in August as construction boomed, suggesting the economy is steadying in response to stronger government spending.” The strong performance “may reinforce growing views that China’s central bank will be in no hurry to cut interest rates or banks’ reserve requirements, for fear of adding to high debt levels or fuelling asset bubbles.”


Wall Street Journal (April 21)

2016/ 04/ 22 by jd in Global News

“For Europe to grow faster, the political class will eventually have to stop looking to the ECB as the growth engine of first and last resort.” On Thursday, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, was unusually blunt in his criticism of other European politicians because they “have used the relief of low interest rates as an excuse not to do reforms.”


Institutional Investor (March 16)

2016/ 03/ 18 by jd in Global News

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Not because anybody expects them to change interest rates at today’s meeting, but because everybody wants a glimpse of the future. “Concerns over volatility around the globe and fragility in some sectors, notably energy and industrials, suggest that the Fed may signal a moderation of the pace of tightening…. A slower path for rates seems plausible as core inflation appears to be manageable.”


Bloomberg (February 12)

2016/ 02/ 14 by jd in Global News

The Bank of Japan’s “decision to adopt negative interest rates has failed to rein in the currency’s advance.” In part, this is because money managers are advising wealthy families to favor the yen amid the turmoil in global financial markets. As a result, the yen is outperforming “all 31 other major currencies this year as Japan’s current-account surplus makes it attractive for investors seeking a haven.


Financial Times (February 10)

2016/ 02/ 11 by jd in Global News

“The Bank of Japan should not fear cutting interest rates even further.” Japan’s central bank “should not be constrained by fear that others will follow it into negative territory.”


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