BBC (October 13)
We’ve learned three things about the UK’s economy from the semiannual IMF forecast. “1. The UK is weathering the Iran war better than expected…. 2. The UK is doing better than other major economies…. 3. But things could get worse.” Also of note, by 2031, the UK “is projected to have the lowest annual borrowing of the G7 group of countries, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.”
Tags: 2031, Borrowing, Canada, Economy, France, G7, Germany, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Lowest, Major economies, MF forecast, UK, Worse
South China Morning Post (September 17)
“What is clear is that while the US is putting pressure on Japanese monetary policy, Japan could end up putting global markets under more strain.” Aside from undermining the Bank of Japan’s credibility, the outside pressure could “cause the yen carry trade… to unwind,” leaving especially exposed “technology-heavy stock markets such as South Korea and Taiwan.” Moreover the “higher Japanese bond yields could draw capital away from the US Treasury market, which is already under pressure because of the Fed’s hawkish pivot.”
Tags: BOJ, Bond yields, Carry trade, Clear, Credibility, Exposed, Fed, Global markets, Japan, Monetary policy, Pressure, South Korea, Strain, Taiwan, U.S., Undermining, Unwind, Yen
Wall Street Journal (September 2)
“The 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 4.8% on Tuesday amid a global bond selloff that sent yields on Japan’s 10-year to a three-decade high. The U.S. 30-year bond hit 5.28%, while the U.K.’s 30-year gilt rose to a 28-year high of 5.9%.” These “early murmurs” of the “bond vigilantes” are a welcome development. “They are sending a message to Washington and other Western nations to clean up their fiscal acts. Bond investors may be the only people who can force the politicians to pay attention. The real worry is if the politicians don’t listen.”
Tags: 10-year, 30-year, 4.8%, 5.28%, 5.9%, Bond selloff, Clean-up, Fiscal acts, Gilt, Global, Investors, Japan, Murmurs, Politicians, Treasury note, U.K., Vigilantes, Washington, Welcome, Yields
Barron’s (August 20)
“Japan has leapfrogged France and Germany to become the No. 3 destination for cross-border real estate investment after the U.S. and United Kingdom…. The flows are a vote of confidence in a new Japan where prices are rising and wages are rising faster.”
Tags: Confidence, Cross-border, Destination, Flows, France, Germany, Investment, Japan, Leapfrogged, No. 3, Prices, Real estate, Rising, U.S., UK
Fortune (August 15)
“The first U.S.-Japan joint intervention in three decades aimed at boosting the yen has come and gone without doing much to ease anxiety in currency markets.” In fact, it may have heightened concern. A recent note from Yardeni Research captured this sentiment. “The financial system right now looks like a giant Jenga tower with the yen as a load-bearing piece.”
Tags: Anxiety, Boosting, Concern, Currency markets, Financial system, Japan, Jenga tower, Joint intervention, Sentiment, U.S., Yardeni Research, Yen
Wall Street Journal (August 11)
“It was obvious when Tokyo and Washington intervened recently to stabilize the value of the yen that the intervention wouldn’t stick, and sure enough. The Japanese currency has commenced a new downward march, so perhaps it’s time for a new plan…. Absent fundamental policy changes in Japan, no intervention from anyone will prop up the yen indefinitely.”
Tags: Currency, Downward march, Fundamental, Intervention, Japan, New plan, Obvious, Policy changes, Prop up, Stabilize, Tokyo, Value, Washington, Yen
Financial Times (August 10)
“The yen has given up roughly half its gains following the historic joint intervention by the US and Japan, with investors saying the lack of a ‘unified voice’ among central banks lessened its market impact.” The prevailing view is that “the intervention would be unlikely to provide lasting support unless it was accompanied by interest rate rises from the Bank of Japan” and that the intervention might have been more effective with greater international co-operation, specifically involving the ECB, which was not consulted.
Tags: BOJ, Central banks, Co-operation, ECB, Gains, Interest rate, Investors, Japan, Joint intervention, Lasting support, Market impact, U.S., Yen
The Guardian (August 9)
“India is attempting to do something the world has never seen before…. No major economy has tried to expand GDP nearly eightfold within a generation while simultaneously redirecting its energy and industrial systems to reach net zero within two generations.” This is remarkable. “China industrialised at vast scale, but not on a sustainable net zero path. Korea, Japan and Europe became wealthy by industrialising before decarbonizing,” but “the world’s most populous country has to do this while also reducing emissions.” And India doesn’t have much choice. “In April, on a single day, all of the planet’s top 50 hottest cities were in India.”
Tags: China, Decarbonizing, Emissions, Energy, Europe, GDP, Hottest cities, India, Industrial systems, Industrialized, Japan, Korea, Major economy, Net zero, Scale, Sustainable, Wealthy
The Times (July 24)
“Sanae Takaichi, the first female prime minister of Japan, is a very accomplished woman,” but she “needs to treat herself to some quality shut-eye.” Getting by on less than three hours of sleep per night is not “an admirable work ethic” and, “in a country grappling with a culture of overwork, Ms Takaichi is setting a bad example.”
Tags: Accomplished, Admirable, Bad example, Culture, Female, Grappling, Japan, Overwork, Prime minister, Shut-eye, Sleep, Takaichi, Work ethic
Financial Times (July 23)
“Japan is now behaving like a country that has emerged from a malaise once considered incurable. Deflation now seems consigned to the past. The output gap has closed. Pricing power has returned to parts of the economy that have not known it for years…. The scale and significance of the alteration are remarkable. No country of Japan’s economic size has spent anything like as long in the grip of falling prices and none has emerged with anything like its suite of unknowns as it returns to a still unspecified ‘normal.’”
Tags: Deflation, Economy, Emerged, Japan, Malaise, Normal, Output gap, Pricing power, Remarkable, Scale, Significance, Unknowns
