OilPrice.com (July 20)
“Traffic via Hormuz is once again paralyzed, tanker crossings are sporadic, and Iran and the United States are intensifying the exchange of fire. Meanwhile, global oil stocks are melting like snow. Oil prices have been on a climb for over a week now as hostilities in the Middle East continue, and despite recent talk of a glut, the physical market is flashing signs of tightness—and higher oil for longer.”
Tags: Global oil stocks, Glut, Higher, Hormuz, Hostilities, Intensifying, Iran, Longer, Middle East, Oil prices, Paralyzed, Physical market, Tanker crossings, Tightness, Traffic, U.S.
The Economist (July 4)
“We woz wrong about oil. The market bested us…. There is no shame in that. We stick our neck out and consequently risk having it chopped from time to time.” This is one of those times. Before May, “we said oil traders were in ‘la-la land’ thinking that oil prices would fall to $88 by the end of the year. Today Brent crude costs just over $70 a barrel. Our prediction went about as well as the war.”
Tags: $70 bbl, $88 bbl, Brent crude, La-la land, Market, Oil, Oil prices, Prediction, Shame, Traders
Barron’s (May 27)
“Stocks are near their all-time highs.” Moreover, “investors are nervous about the numerous risks that could hit stocks and the economy. High oil prices and persistent inflation fears. The possibility that this will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Worries about artificial-intelligence disrupting software and other sectors.” Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs believes equities “are still good investments” because “rapidly rising earnings could keep pushing up stock prices” and, rather than dumping equities, investors can manage risk in other ways.
Tags: AI, All-time highs, Earnings, Economy, Equities, Fears, Fed, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Nervous, Numerous, Oil prices, Stock prices, Stocks
The Times (May 27)
“Corporate leaders who think decades ahead in business become incredibly short-sighted in advocacy, financing ideas that become roadblocks to innovation and growth.” Big Tech is currently finding out about the phenomena that Milton Friedman dubbed “the suicidal impulse of the business community.” For years, Big Tech “helped fund climate activism,” but they now face “backlash as AI data centres drive demand for energy and infrastructure growth.”
Tags: AI, All-time highs, Earnings, Economy, Equities, Fears, Fed, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Nervous, Numerous, Oil prices, Risk, Stock prices, Stocks
MarketWatch (May 12)
“The most expensive part of the Iran war may not be the oil prices themselves. It may be uncertainty. Markets can absorb expensive energy; businesses can adapt to higher fuel costs if those costs remain stable and predictable. What becomes far more damaging is an environment in which prices swing violently, geopolitical risks shift by the hour and corporate decision-makers lose visibility over what comes next.”
Tags: Adapt, Businesses, Decision-makers, Energy, Environment, Expensive, Fuel costs, Geopolitical risks, Iran war, Markets, Oil prices, Predictable, Prices, Shift, Stable, Uncertainty
Wall Street Journal (April 23)
“The conflict with Iran has entered a damaging new phase—a crippling limbo between war and peace that leaves the Strait of Hormuz closed and the prospect of escalation looming.” The explosions have stopped, “but the battle for control of the strait, one of the most important conduits of global commerce, is raging, leaving commodity traders on edge and helping push international oil prices above $100 a barrel on Wednesday.”
Tags: Battle, Commodity traders, Conflict, Crippling, Damaging, Escalation, Global commerce, Iran, Limbo, Looming, Oil prices, Peace, Raging, Strait of Hormuz, War
NBC News (April 15)
“Oil prices have started to slip — but not necessarily for reasons that suggest a return to market normalcy.” According to the IEA, “demand destruction” is resulting from “the acute energy commodity shortages stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.” Oil is now at the “point where it is now so expensive that overseas businesses and households have begun curbing investment and consumption.”
Tags: Acute, Businesses, Closure, Demand destruction, Energy commodity, Expensive, Households, IEA, Investment, Market normalcy, Oil prices, Overseas, Shortages, Slip, Strait of Hormuz
Bloomberg (March 6)
“Until the conflict with Iran broke out, President Donald Trump was getting — by design or by chance — what he appeared to want in three pivotal financial markets: lower oil prices and Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. The air strikes that the US and Israel launched over the weekend, and Iran’s counterattacks, are unraveling that.”
Tags: Air strikes, Chance, Conflict, Counterattacks, Design, Dollar, Financial markets, Iran, Israel, Oil prices, Treasury yields, Trump, U.S.
OilPrice.com (February 16)
“For decades, oil prices could swing wildly on even the distant prospect of war in the Middle East. As U.S. shale now accounts for a significant share of the global market, analysts and investors appear to have grown complacent. It is widely assumed, that “anything short of an oil blockade in the Strait of Hormuz will leave oil cold—and such a blockade is highly unlikely. This, however, is a false sense of security. Geopolitics can still flip the script on oil bears.”
Tags: Analysts, Bears, Blockade, Complacent, False, Geopolitics, Global market, Investors, Middle East, Oil prices, Security, Strait of Hormuz, Swing, U.S., War, Wildly
OilPrice.com (November 24)
“The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast.” That is, however, beyond current consensus. “Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.”
Tags: $30, $40, 2027, Analysts, Benchmark, Brent, Consensus, Crude, Fears, Forecast, Glut, Investment banks, JP Morgan, Market, Oil prices
