South China Morning Post (April 2)
Banks and regulators in China have engaged in a delicate dance between reducing non-performing loans (NPLs) and maintaining profits. “That’s why the NPL ratios of the nation’s key banks all hover at about the same level–now around 1.7 per cent of loans,” though “Fitch estimates that the real ratio could be as high as 20 per cent, implying total NPLs of 19 trillion yuan (US$3 trillion).” But the regulator is now becoming more demanding in NPL reduction and unforgiving of gimmicks previously employed to hide NPLs. “Given Beijing’s focus on the stability of the financial system, the flow of NPLs into the market should pick up considerably in the next two to three years, providing ample opportunity for new investors.”
Tags: Banks, China, Fitch, Gimmicks, Investors, Market, NPLs, Opportunity, Profits, Regulators
The Economist (September 17)
“Investors outside China have about $1trn invested in firms that use” variable interest entities (VIEs). These include Alibaba and Tencent. Yet, it remains “unclear if VIEs are even legal in China,” exposing investors to two risks. “First, the VIEs could be ruled illegal, potentially forcing the firms to wind up or sell vital licences and intellectual property in China. The second danger is that VIE owners seek to grab the profits or assets held within. If they refuse to co-operate, die, or fall out of political favour, it is far from clear that firms can enforce VIE contracts in Chinese courts.”
Tags: Alibaba, Assets, China, Contracts, Courts, Illegal, Investors, IP, Profits, Risks, Tencent, VIEs
Bloomberg (August 14)
“The last time Japan strung together this many quarters of growth was back in mid-2006…. The yen has fallen, corporate profits have soared and the economy is running above its potential growth rate. Yet inflation remains stubbornly low, despite massive monetary stimulus from the central bank. Economists are watching intently for signs that the tightest labor market in decades is beginning to bring wage gains.”
Tags: Central bank, Economists, Economy, Inflation, Japan. Growth, Labor market, Monetary stimulus, Profits, Wage gains, Yen
Institutional Investor (December 28)
“U.S. earnings have declined for four straight quarters, and market participants are taking notice.” This decline in corporate profits may “signal a looming recession.”
Institutional Investor (October 18)
Falling U.S. equity prices during the third quarter have “left investors asking whether the terrific run in U.S. equities since 2011 is over. Is the setback a buying opportunity or the beginning of a more serious downturn?” Overall, “we think there are enough positives to keep profits increasing at a high-single-digit rate over the next five to seven years.”
Tags: Buying opportunity, Downturn, Equity prices, Investors, Positives, Profits, Q3, Setback, U.S.
The Economist (September 19)
“Corporate profits more than tripled in 1980-2013, rising from 7.6% of global GDP to 10%, of which Western companies captured more than two-thirds. The after-tax profits of American firms are at their highest level as a share of national income since 1929.” Yet a recent study suggests “the golden age of the Western corporation may be coming to an end.” The McKinsey Global Institute projects “that corporate profits may fall from 10% of global GDP to about 8% in a decade’s time.”
Financial Times (August 11)
Fears are growing of a meltdown in the aluminum market as Chinese output soars and, much like the oil market, supply outstrips demand. “China now accounts for more than half of global supply, up from 18 per cent in 2003 thanks to cheap power and the world’s most efficiently built smelters. Established producers from North America to Russia and the Middle East—facing the lowest prices since the financial crisis, reduced margins and profits—are anxious but do not want to cut capacity for fear of losing market share.”
Tags: Aluminum, Capacity, China, Fears, Margins, Market share, Meltdown, Middle East, North America, Oil, Output, Profits, Russia, Smelters
Washington Post (August 10)
“Matters are not as clear as is often suggested regarding short-term-driven ‘quarterly capitalism.’” The “most enthusiastic champions of long-termism” are often the “managements of companies that are dissipating the most value, such as General Motors before it needed to be bailed out.” Long-termism can also lead to short-term excesses, such as “market participants who willingly place huge valuations on many Silicon Valley companies that lack any profits and have little revenue.”
Tags: GM, Long-termism, Profits, Quarterly capitalism, Revenue, Short term, Silicon Valley, Valuations
Financial Times (July 27)
“Ending the tyranny of quarterly earnings is an idea that is on the march. The case for reforming shareholder capitalism is strong.” An “investment drought” is resulting from the focus on short-termism. “With healthy profits and a near zero cost of capital, now ought to be the time to lay down plans for the future. Today’s investments yield tomorrow’s dividends. But listed companies are almost uniformly opting for dividends today.” In the U.S., leading listed companies are, on average, investing only one dollar for every $8-$9 they return to shareholders.
Tags: Cost of capital, Drought, Future. Dividends, Investment, Profits, Quarterly earnings, Shareholder capitalism, Shareholders, Short-termism, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 12)
With about 1,000 companies making smartphones globally, only “one reaps nearly all the profits” and that company accounts for just 20% of smartphone unit sales. “Apple Inc. recorded 92% of the total operating income from the world’s eight top smartphone makers in the first quarter, up from 65% a year earlier.”
Tags: Apple, Companies, Operating income, Profits, Smartphones
