Fortune (December 11)
“For all the volatility 2025 has endured, things have actually turned out relatively well: The S&P 500 is up by more than 17%, inflation hasn’t spiked despite an onslaught of tariffs, and the unemployment rate has stayed fairly steady. Analysts and investors are generally feeling positive about 2026 as a result.” This may be overlooking signs of weakness. “Beneath the relatively robust macroeconomic picture, cracks are beginning to show.”
Tags: 17%, 2025, 2026, Analysts, Endured, Inflation, Investors, Macroeconomic, Overlooking, Positive, S&P 500, Steady, Tariffs, Unemployment, Volatility, Weakness
New York Times (December 1)
“Investors had been growing more optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates at next week’s meeting” while holiday sales “also bolstered the rally.” Still, “the consumer is still a major concern…. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have flagged that a recent rise in spending may be masking a concerning economic undercurrent: Many lower-income consumers are struggling with stubbornly high inflation and an uncertain labor market.”
Tags: Analysts, BoA, Consumer, Fed, GS, Holiday sales, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Labor market, Lower-income, Optimistic, Rally, Spending, Struggling, Undercurrent
Barron’s (November 26)
“Less frequent financial reporting could create a longer runway for bad actors within publicly traded companies.… Proponents of semi-annual reporting raise two main points in support of their argument—short-termism and costs. Both are too speculative, and neither seems to outweigh the potential downsides to investors of less frequent reporting.”
Tags: Bad actors, Companies, Costs, Downsides, Financial reporting, Investors, Proponents, Publicly traded, Runway, Semi-annual reporting, Short-termism, Speculative
Wall Street Journal (November 23)
“Fear of bursting investment bubbles. Concern the economy is slowing. Pressure on investors to cash in profits. These forces are colliding in markets, leading to the sharpest intraday swings for stocks in months and leaving investors bracing for more.” Already, the S&P 500 is down 3.5% in November.” Not to be outdone, the “Nasdaq composite has slid more than 6%” during the same period.”
Tags: Bubbles, Bursting, Cash, Colliding, Concern, Economy, Fear, Intraday swings, Investment, Investors, Markets, Nasdaq, November, Pressure, Profits, S&P 500, Stocks
MarketWatch (November 21)
“Developments in Japan are now creating the risk that U.S. yields could rise alongside Japan’s yields.” Amid budget concerns over proposed fiscal stimulus, yields on JGBs “hit their highest levels in almost two decades, with the country’s 10-year rate spiking above 1.78% to its highest level in more than 17 years” while 40-year yields “climbed to an all-time high just above 3.7%.” Since Japan “is the biggest foreign holder of Treasurys, with a roughly 13% share… the concern is that the country’s investors might one day pull the rug by keeping more of their savings at home.”
Tags: 1.78%, 3.7%, Budget, Developments, Fiscal stimulus, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Risk, Savings, Treasurys, U.S., Yields
New York Times (November 18)
UBS expects “the global A.I. capex tally” will “hit $423 billion this year…and reach $1.3 trillion by 2030.” But Big Tech’s “debt-fueled spending spree” is raising concern. “Not long ago, huge investment pledges pushed the A.I. rally to new heights. But the need to borrow so many billions is beginning to rattle stock and bond investors.” For example, “shares in Oracle, and some of if its bonds, have sold off sharply in the past month in a sign of investors’ growing concerns about its long-term A.I. financing plan.”
Tags: $1.3 trillion, $423 billion, 2030, A.I., Big tech, Bond, Borrow, CAPEX, Debt-fueled, Financing, Investors, Oracle, Shares, Spending spree, Stock, UBS
Financial Times (November 15)
“The longest ever US government shutdown has created an unprecedented blind spot over the health of the world’s biggest economy as critical data reports are set to be delayed or ditched.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and other agencies “were largely unable to collect and publish data during the 43-day shutdown, creating a gap in statistical series that will obscure the economic picture for investors and policymakers.”
Tags: Agencies, Blind spot, BLS, Collect, Data, Delayed, Economy, Gap, Government, Investors, Longest, Obscure, Publish, Reports, Shutdown, Statistical series, U.S.
Barron’s (November 10)
“The longest government shutdown on record may be nearing its conclusion, and U.S. stocks are likely to claw back a big chunk of last week’s decline.” But end of the shutdown is “a band-aid, not a cure” for markets. “The long, and likely volatile path to reopening the federal government…will only mask the major issues investors are grappling with heading into the final weeks of the trading year, and the stock market could break in either direction once some of those questions are addressed.”
Tags: Band-aid, Cure, Decline, Government, Investors, Longest, Record, Shutdown, Stock market, Stocks, Trading, U.S., Volatile
The Ecoomist (October 13)
Politicians, economists, investors and others have long argued whether China’s economy is “a bubble waiting to burst” or “a sustainable success.” The argument is shifting, however, as “a new debate is now emerging, which is potentially far nastier. Much of the world falls into one camp: admiring China’s accomplishments, but also reeling from a deluge of Chinese exports. In the other camp is China, utterly convinced of the rightness of its economic model.”
Tags: Accomplishments, Admiring, Argument, Bubble, Burst, China, Convinced, Debate, Deluge, Economists, Economy, Emerging, Exports, Investors, Nastier, Politicians, Reeling, Rightness, Success, Sustainable
Barron’s (October 1)
“Like the Y2K disaster or the widespread invasion of murder hornets, the highly anticipated September curse failed to materialize this year. The question is whether or not a rough patch has been avoided or simply delayed. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite recorded their best Septembers since 2010.” Still, some analysts and investors worry that the issues that worried them “before haven’t been resolved, even as investor complacency seems to suggest that they have been.”
Tags: 2010, Analysts, Avoided, Delayed, Highly anticipated, Invasion, Investors, Materialize, Nasdaq, Rough patch, S&P 500, September curse, Worry, Y2K disaster
