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New York Times (August 9)

2018/ 08/ 11 by jd in Global News

The $30 trillion U.S. stock market hogs the attention, but “the larger domestic debt market—at around $41 trillion for the bond market alone—reveals more about our nation’s financial health. And right now, the debt market is broadcasting a dangerous message: Investors, desperate for debt instruments that pay high interest, have been overpaying for riskier and riskier obligations….  with little concern that bonds can be every bit as dangerous to own as stocks.” The mispricing of risk is still rampant and when spreads rise and defaults begin, “trillions of dollars in invested capital could be lost.” Although, we’re not necessarily “on the verge of a recession. But the corporate debt bubble inevitably will play a role in causing it.”

 

Euromoney (March 3)

2017/ 03/ 07 by jd in Global News

“At what point does a boom become a bubble? The question needs to be asked in Asian high yield, where year-to-date issuance volumes are fast approaching the figure for the whole of 2016 in China and have already long exceeded it in India and Indonesia – after just eight weeks of the year, one of which was a write-off for Chinese New Year.”

 

Washington Post (January 14)

2016/ 01/ 16 by jd in Global News

“The China bubble has burst,” but the nation’s trajectory remains unclear. “The worst outcome—a doomsday scenario—would have China fostering worldwide deflation. Its growth would continue to deteriorate sharply, extending the decline in commodity prices and the weakness of global trade. Around the world, there would be more production cuts, layoffs and bankruptcies.”

 

Bloomberg (June 17)

2015/ 06/ 18 by jd in Global News

“It’s no longer a question of whether China’s stock-market rally is a bubble, but when the bubble will burst That’s the refrain from a growing number of analysts as valuations climb to levels that by some measures already exceed the peak of China’s last equity mania in 2007.”

 

Forbes (March 13)

2014/ 03/ 14 by jd in Global News

“Like Iceland in its heyday, Singapore’s economic stability and vitality – on the surface at least – has made it the envy of the world at a time when most Western economies are languishing with feeble growth, and high rates of unemployment and poverty.” And, just like Iceland, the Switzerland of Asia will suffer when its economic bubble is punctured. In the meantime, “Singapore’s bubble economy may continue inflating for several more years if the U.S. Fed Funds Rate and SIBOR continue to be held at such low levels.”

 

Financial Times (January 6, 2014)

2014/ 01/ 07 by jd in Global News

After spectacular performance in 2012, some fear the U.S. stock market is set for a correction. “For now, these worries are probably overstated. The current outlook has little in common with the rampant overconfidence that accompanied the great speculative excesses of the past. But there are reasons to believe that the preconditions for a bubble are in place.”

 

Financial Times (August 7)Financial Times (August 7)

2012/ 08/ 10 by jd in Global News

Gold has risen to $1,900 an ounce from $280 a decade ago. “The total market value of all the gold in existence…exceeds the combined capitalisation of the German, Chinese and Japanese stock markets.” When the gold bubble will end remains a question, but by some yardsticks it’s nearing a correction. “Gold is at a 120-year high (at least) relative to US house prices. Likewise, it is at a 74-year high relative to US wages, at multi-generation highs relative to wheat, coffee and cocoa.”

“Trust has broken down between IPO vendors and issuers and traditional investors in new stock offerings in Europe. Deal arrangers seem incapable of bridging the valuation gap between the two sides.” Issuer focus on achieving high valuation is colliding with investor expectation to buy at a discount. As a result, 50% of Europe’s large planned IPOs failed this year. The situation is only slightly better for IPOs of all sizes. “In the first seven months of this year, 143 initial public offerings were priced for European issuers, while 50 others, over one-third as many, were either announced and then postponed or launched and then pulled. That’s a very high failure rate.”

 

Wall Street Journal (June 6)

2012/ 06/ 09 by jd in Global News

“To the Chinese stock market and property bubbles, now add the whisky bubble.” Scotch is “the tipple of choice for the ultra-wealthy class” in China. In many ways this bubble mirrors Japan’s similar bubble of the 1970s and 1980s. Spirit makers are being cautioned they might be left with a hangover if the bubble bursts.“To the Chinese stock market and property bubbles, now add the whisky bubble.” Scotch is “the tipple of choice for the ultra-wealthy class” in China. In many ways this bubble mirrors Japan’s similar bubble of the 1970s and 1980s. Spirit makers are being cautioned they might be left with a hangover if the bubble bursts.

 

Economist (April 28)

2012/ 05/ 01 by jd in Global News

U.S. home prices have rapidly corrected, having “lost nearly all the real gains they notched up in the bubble period.” In contrast, the correction has been slower in Europe. “British, Irish and Spanish house prices are still well above their “fundamental” value, while those in America are about right.”

U.S. home prices have rapidly corrected, they “have lost nearly all the real gains they notched up in the bubble period.” In contrast, the correction has been slower in Europe. “British, Irish and Spanish house prices are still well above their “fundamental” value, while those in America are about right.”

 

New York Times (December 27)

2011/ 12/ 28 by jd in Global News

“China’s housing bubble appears to be imploding, steel production is falling along with the demand for new construction and real estate developers are tottering, putting banks at risk.” A hard landing in China would be a blow to the world economy. It could also spark a trade war and this could be the “bigger risk” as China tries to prop up its domestic economy by subsidizing exports and discouraging imports.

 

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