Institutional Investor (February 14)
The “flood of institutional money” flowing into the European property safe havens of France, Germany and the U.K. could impact the markets, potentially increasing asset prices, lowering yields, and leading ultimately to a correction. “Since the 2008 collapse of Lehman brothers Holdings triggered the global economic downturn, these three countries have accounted for about 70% of the $100 billion or so a year of European commercial real estate purchases made by investors, well above the long-term average of about 50 percent.”
Tags: Europe, France, Germany, Property, Real estate, Safe havens, U.K.
The Economist (November 17)
While focus may currently rest on the PIIGS, “ahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France…. too many of France’s firms are uncompetitive and the country’s bloated government is living beyond its means.” Without decisive action, “France will lose the faith of investors—and of Germany. As several euro-zone countries have found, sentiment in the markets can shift quickly. The crisis could hit as early as next year.”
Washington Post (October 24)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook. It predicts that during the next four years, the U.S. “will be the strongest of the world’s rich economies. U.S. growth is forecast to average 3 percent, much stronger than that of Germany or France (1.2 percent) or even Canada (2.3 percent). Increasingly, the evidence suggests that the United States has come out of the financial crisis of 2008 in better shape than its peers — because of the actions of its government.”
Tags: Canada, Financial Crisis, France, Germany, Government, Growth, IMF, U.S., World Economic Outlook
The Economist (October 24)
There’s no end in sight to Europe’s “carmaking crisis.” Sales have fallen for 5 straight years in the EU. In September, year-on-year sales were down 11% across the EU, 18% in France, 26% in Italy and 37% in Spain. “Britain was the only significant market to enjoy a small rise.” With production capacity of 17 million cars a year, and current demand around 13 million units, “the overcapacity is glaring.”
Tags: Automakers, Cars, Crisis, EU, France, Italy, Overcapacity, Spain, UK
Wall Street Journal (August 28)
François Hollande, the Socialist President of France, “deserves credit” for taking a hard stance against Syria and the Bashar Assad regime. Hollande “appreciates the strategic stakes in Syria. So does Iran, which is sending hundreds of soldiers and senior Revolutionary Guards commanders to Syria to shore up the Assad regime…. The mullahs know that Syria is their bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon and their only significant partner in the Arab world, and that their ambitions in the Middle East would be much harder to fulfill without a Damascene ally.”
Tags: Bashar Assad, France, François Hollande, Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, Syria
Forbes (June 27)
“The euro is going to survive despite all the crises and the growing punditry consensus that this experiment is doomed to fail. The currency will live on for political reasons—Germany and France want it to.”
“The euro is going to survive despite all the crises and the growing punditry consensus that this experiment is doomed to fail. The currency will live on for political reasons—Germany and France want it to.”
Financial Times (May 22)
“The German elite were the ones who understood what creating the euro implied. They realised that a currency union could not work without a political union. But the French elite wanted, instead, to end their humiliating dependence on the monetary policy set by Germany’s Bundesbank. Now, two decades later, Germany’s partners, including France, have learnt a painful lesson. Far from being liberated from German control, they are now far more firmly under it. In a big crisis, creditors rule.”
Tags: Bundesbank, Creditors, Currency union, France, Germany, Political union
The Independent (May 12)
“The Franco-German elite which rules the euro is still in denial about the failure of its core project,” but the “Euro’s day of reckoning looms.”
The Economist (May 12)
“Amid growing risk of a Greek exit, the euro zone has yet to face up to the task of saving the single currency itself…. The idea of a chaotic Greek departure from the euro at a time of Franco-German disunion should terrify everyone it touches…. Like some dreadful joke, the euro needs French reform, German extravagance and Italian political maturity.”
Washington Post (May 8)
“Nicolas Sarkozy is merely the latest leader felled by Europe’s economic crisis and the lassitude of its citizens. His flamboyant, hyperkinetic persona had grown jarringly dissonant with the grayness of the times and undermined his demands for belt-tightening and sacrifice by his countrymen.” France’s new president Francois Hollande will bring a change in tone. Blasé, rather than flamboyant, Hollande “has made clear that he will be less compliant than Sarkozy in the face of Germany’s demands.” Still, Hollande is more likely to bring “changes around the margins” than radical change, excepting his obvious change in demeanor.
“Nicolas Sarkozy is merely the latest leader felled by Europe’s economic crisis and the lassitude of its citizens. His flamboyant, hyperkinetic persona had grown jarringly dissonant with the grayness of the times and undermined his demands for belt-tightening and sacrifice by his countrymen.” France’s new president Francois Hollande will bring a change in tone. Blasé, rather than flamboyant, Hollande “has made clear that he will be less compliant than Sarkozy in the face of Germany’s demands.” Still, rather than radical change, Hollande is likely to bring “changes around the margins,” in addition to his more obvious changes in demeanor.
