BBC (October 13)
We’ve learned three things about the UK’s economy from the semiannual IMF forecast. “1. The UK is weathering the Iran war better than expected…. 2. The UK is doing better than other major economies…. 3. But things could get worse.” Also of note, by 2031, the UK “is projected to have the lowest annual borrowing of the G7 group of countries, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.”
Tags: 2031, Borrowing, Canada, Economy, France, G7, Germany, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Lowest, Major economies, MF forecast, UK, Worse
Wall Street Journal (October 7)
“France is on the precipice of a dangerous financial spiral. The global surge in interest rates has exposed the country, once considered an oasis of relative stability in Europe’s financial markets, as one of the continent’s weakest links.”
Tags: Dangerous, Europe, Exposed, Financial spiral, France, Global surge, Interest rates, Markets, Oasis, Precipice, Stability, Weakest link
Seeking Alpha (October 6)
“French 10-year government bonds have fallen behind all major developed-market sovereign debt this year, posting the worst year-to-date total return among peers at negative 6.8%…. Plagued with massive deficits and total public debt near 120% of GDP, France’s performance trails behind both core European benchmark issuers and historically higher-yielding southern European debt.”
Tags: 10-year, 120, Benchmark issuers, Developed market, European debt, France, GDP, Government bonds, Massive deficits, Plagued, Sovereign debt, Total public debt, Total return
Wall Street Journal (October 2)
“The monthslong rout in global government bonds is getting messier and weirder.” For developed nations, sovereign debt had “moved broadly in tandem.” But on Thursday, “a flight to bonds considered safe drove U.S. Treasury yields lower, while those of French, Italian and Greek bonds jumped in a sudden divergence.” While this was a “reprieve of sorts for the U.S…. it was also a reminder of how extended selloffs in bonds can cause unexpected problems.” There is “a faint smell of a crisis in the making.”
Tags: Bonds, Developed nations, Divergence, Flight, France, Global, Greece, Italy, Messier, Reprieve, Rout, Selloffs, Sovereign debt, Treasury yields, U.S., Unexpected problems, Weirder
Le Monde (September 30)
“For a long time, France was in denial….Now, it has been overtaken by its hesitations over how to control public debt.” The pace of fiscal deterioration is “striking,” as is the “dire state of the country’s public finances…. The long-feared runaway debt spiral has now begun. It should be a wake-up call for anyone aspiring to lead France over the next five years.”
Tags: Denial, Dire state, Finances, Fiscal deterioration, France, Hesitations, Overtaken, Pace, Public debt, Runaway, Spiral, Striking
Market Watch (September 6)
“The U.S.’s status as a financial safe haven has begun to clash with President Trump’s growing barrage of economic and military threats to advance his agenda.” There seems be a common fear behind the Netherland’s recent withdrawal of reserve gold from the U.S., the drawdowns of France and Germany’s U.S.-based reserves, and a current plan in Norway to cut Treasury holdings. Basically, what’s to stop Trump from simply seizing their assets? His “sweeping tariff fight shocked the world last year. Then came the capture in January of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, February’s launch of the U.S.-Iran war, and plans in late August to control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. In between, there’s been taunting of European and NATO allies, a campaign to takeover over Greenland and its natural resources and, lately, an escalating U.S.-Canada trade war.” So even if seizure sounds far-fetched, it is a legitimate risk for central banks to mitigate.
Tags: Allies, Assets, Barrage, Canada, Capture, Clash, Economic, Escalating, Europe, Fear, France, Germany, Gold, Greenland, Iran war, Maduro, Military threats, Nato, Netherlands, Norway, Reserves, Risk, Safe haven, Seizing, Seizure, Tariff, Taunting, Trade war, Treasury, Trump, U.S., Venezuela, Venezuelan oil, Withdrawal
Barron’s (August 20)
“Japan has leapfrogged France and Germany to become the No. 3 destination for cross-border real estate investment after the U.S. and United Kingdom…. The flows are a vote of confidence in a new Japan where prices are rising and wages are rising faster.”
Tags: Confidence, Cross-border, Destination, Flows, France, Germany, Investment, Japan, Leapfrogged, No. 3, Prices, Real estate, Rising, U.S., UK
The Times (July 29)
The UK’s “reckless lack of gas storage invites disaster.” Britain maintains “90 days’ worth of oil imports,” but “just two or three days’ worth of gas in reserve.” Since oil and gas each account for approximately one third of domestic energy, this “peculiarity” contributes “to energy insecurity and our soaring bills.” It’s completely out of step with reality. “Germany can store 90 days’ gas; France, over 100; Italy, somewhere in between; and the Netherlands, about 60.” Britain’s “reckless lack of gas storage invites disaster.” This obvious failure “ought to be a considerable source of worry.”
Tags: Disaster, Domestic energy, Failure, France, Gas, Gas storage, Germany, Insecurity, Italy, Netherlands, Oil imports, Peculiarity, Reckless, Reserve, Soaring bills, UK, Worry
BBC (June 28)
“Europe’s unprecedented early summer heatwave may be responsible for hundreds of excess deaths.” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that over 1,300 deaths recorded since June 21 were likely linked to the unrelenting heat. Though the majority of the excess deaths were in France, the heat has been widespread. “Temperature records were broken across the continent again on Sunday – including in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic – as the extreme heat continued to move east.”
Tags: Czech Republic, Europe, Excess deaths, France, Germany, Heatwave, Poland, Records, Summer, Temperature, Unprecedented, Unrelenting heat, WHO
Barron’s (June 23)
“The latest heatwave sweeping across Europe is a stark reminder that it is the world’s fastest-warming continent, stretching into an Arctic that is heating at an even greater pace. Britain, France, Italy and Spain have issued red alerts and health warnings for much of their territory this week as the region endures its second heat episode since May.”
Tags: Arctic, Britain, Continent, Endures, Europe, Fastest-warming, France, Health warnings, Heatwave, Italy, May, Reminder, Spain. Red alerts, Stark
