MarketWatch (May 22)
“A soaring 30-year Treasury yield has grabbed the lion’s share of attention lately when it comes to signaling how the U.S. fiscal outlook is rattling investors.” What’s happening in Japan, as bond yields surge, is a “less-talked-about factor weighing on sentiment.” Yields on 30-year JGBs rose “to almost 3.17% on Thursday, the highest in roughly 25 years of record-keeping” while 40-year yields “jumped to 3.67%, the highest level since its inception in 2007.” The “sharply higher yields on Japanese government bonds” may already be enticing “the country’s investors to return home.” It is likely that “the recent selloff in the Japanese bond market may have played at least some role in the Treasury market’s own selloff of the longest-dated government maturity Thursday morning.”
Tags: 3.67%, 30-year, 40 year, Bond yields, Enticing, Fiscal outlook, Investors, JGBs, Rattling, Sentiment, Soaring, Surge, Treasury, U.S.
MarketWatch (July 6)
“The bond market has enjoyed relatively limited volatility in the first half of 2024, but that calm could be disrupted by growing worry about the U.S. fiscal outlook ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. Of all the wild cards in the months ahead for the $27 trillion Treasury market… a rising U.S. government deficit is regarded as perhaps the greatest long-term risk facing the market right now because of its potential to translate into higher volatility during the second half.”
Tags: $27 trillion, 2024, Bond market, Deficit, Fiscal outlook, Growing worry, H1, H2, Market, Presidential election, Risk, Treasury market, U.S., Volatility
