The Hindu (February 15)
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das proclaimed the worst of inflation was in the rear-view mirror. Five days later, January CPI estimates “revealed a disconcerting reversal in price gains trend. Headline retail inflation… quickened by 80 basis points last month to 6.5%. Propelling the acceleration was a 175 basis-points jump in food prices.” This “surprise reversal” suggests that “inflationary expectations in the economy are nowhere near anchored and will necessitate further policy action both from the RBI and fiscal authorities.”
Tags: Acceleration, Anchored, CPI, Economy, Expectations, Food prices, India, Inflation, Price gains, Reserve Bank, Surprise reversal
Financial Times (February 7)
“Investors are befuddled. Until a clear narrative on how the economy will fare emerges, markets will continue to whipsaw…. Markets are still digesting what it means for the US economic outlook, with a hard, a soft, and even a “no landing” scenario on the table, which have varying implications for investors and their positioning.”
Tags: Befuddled, Economy, Hard, Implications, Investors, Landing, Markets, Narrative, Outlook, Scenario, Soft, U.S., Whipsaw
Wall Street Journal (February 6)
“Today congestion has all but disappeared at U.S. ports, supply chains have almost returned to normal, and freight costs have fallen back to prepandemic levels. But in the aftermath of this disorienting and costly experience, it is critical to ask: What led to such a severe backup and what can be done to prevent a recurrence?” Until there are corrective measures like 24/7 port operation and automated container handling, “the system remains vulnerable to future supply disruptions that will harm the U.S. economy.”
Tags: 24/7 port operation, Automated container handling, Backup, Congestion, Costly, Critical, Disorienting, Economy, Freight costs, Ports, Prevent, Supply disruptions, U.S., Vulnerable
Pensions & Investments (February 2)
“Money managers in Europe still expect the U.K. economy to contract, despite the Bank of England’s latest 50-basis-point rate hike and a more subdued inflation forecast.”
Tags: 50-basis-point, BOE, Contract, Economy, Europe, Forecast, Inflation, Money managers, Rate hike, Subdued, U.K.
Financial Times (January 21)
“In a country where companies have resisted raising pay and the workforce has refrained from aggressive salary demands for most of the past three decades, Fast Retailing’s move is a watershed for the government and the Bank of Japan’s battle to lift the economy out of deflation.” Should the approach gain momentum, “the ramifications could be far-reaching,” potentially leading to “a virtuous cycle of rising wages, consumption and prices” that “would allow Japan to finally move away from the negative interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policies.”
Tags: BOJ, Consumption, Deflation, Demands, Economy, Fast Retailing, Interest rates, Japan, Prices, Raising pay, Rising wages, Salary, Ultra-loose, Virtuous cycle, Watershed, Workforce
Wall Street Journal (January 15)
“Despite signs that inflation has started to recede, economists still expect higher interest rates to push the U.S. economy into a recession in the coming year…. On average, business and academic economists polled by the Journal put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%, little changed from 63% in October’s survey.”
Tags: Academic, Business, Economists, Economy, Inflation, Interest rates, Recede, Recession, Survey, U.S.
Washington Post (December 21)
“China’s new covid nightmare could become a global catastrophe. The absence of a coherent fallback strategy” not only “threatens a fresh set of nightmares for its population, its economy and the Communist Party leadership. A new crisis could shake the whole world. As the Wuhan outbreak demonstrated three years ago, what begins in China does not necessarily stay there.”
Tags: China, Communist party, Covid, Crisis, Economy, Fallback strategy, Global catastrophe, Leadership, Nightmare, Outbreak, Population, Threatens, Wuhan
American Banker (December 9)
“Fintechs turned cross-border payments into a hotbed of innovation over the last five years. Now the card networks and banks are responding with disruptions of their own. It’s not just the competitive threat from fintechs developing faster, cheaper and more transparent cross-border payment options. The changing economy is now adding urgency for legacy cross-border providers to modernize their services.”
Tags: Banks, Card networks, Cheaper, Competitive threat, Cross-border, Disruptions, Economy, Faster, Fintechs, Hotbed, Innovation, Legacy, Modernize, Payments, Services, Transparent
Washington Post (November 29)
“After so many months of insisting that the Communist Party and Mr. Xi know best — that rigid ‘zero covid’ is the only correct approach — changing course would imply they erred. China’s economy and its people’s health depend on whether this authoritarian system can respond to the voices of protest, ditch its own propaganda and show flexibility.”
Tags: Authoritarian system, Changing course, China, Communist party, Economy, Erred, Health, People, Propaganda, Protest, Rigid, Xi, Zero COVID
Wall Street Journal (November 25)
“China’s zero-Covid reckoning” is approaching as “record infections and new lockdowns lead to rising public frustration and slower economic growth.” China’s economy is expected to slow further, “with growth estimates falling for the fourth quarter and the year below 3%. That’s assuming Chinese officials aren’t gilding the books. China’s official GDP target for this year had been 5.5%.”
Tags: China, Economy, GDP, Infections, Lockdowns, Public frustration, Q4, Reckoning, Record, Slower economic growth, Zero COVID