Wall Street Journal (May 20)
“The Japanese economy unexpectedly grew in the first quarter of 2019 supported by government spending, although there were some worrying signs connected to the U.S.-China trade dispute.” The economic expansion (2.1% annualized) surprised economists who thought “the first-quarter figure would be flat or slightly negative.”
Tags: China, Economists, Economy, Expansion, Government, Japan, Spending, Trade dispute, U.S., Unexpected
Nikkei (May 19)
“Japan’s economy” looks “on course for a major downturn,” based on a survey of about 1,300 economists. “Should China’s stimulus take hold, concerns about a worsening Japanese economy may be washed away. Yet Japan is constrained not only in its monetary policy, but also in its fiscal leeway considering the heavy government debt load,” not to mention the need for major employment and social security reforms.
Tags: China, Debt load, Downturn, Economists, Economy, Employment. Social security, Government, Japan, Monetary policy, Reforms, Stimulus
The Economist (May 18)
“America’s net public debt is high, if not yet huge” and unless something changes “public debt will rise to 92% of GDP in 2029… and go on rising for decades.” This may not matter so much. “Though debt has grown as a share of GDP, interest payments are near their historical average” and “lower than the nominal growth rate of the economy…. In such circumstances a debt will shrink as a share of GDP over time. If the economy grows faster than interest builds up, the government could run a small deficit forever.”
Tags: Deficit, Economy, GDP, Government, Growth rate, Interest, Public debt, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (May 11)
The tariff spat with China “is a political trade risk the economy hasn’t faced since the 1930s, and no one knows where it might end.” Although there “will be many economic losers,” including U.S. farmers who are getting hit hard, “the broader cost is a continuation of policy uncertainty, as CEOs and investors can’t be sure about their supply chains, their cost of goods and raw material, or how long the tariff brawl will last.” Ultimately, “the impact on GDP is hard to calculate but it’s real.”
Tags: CEOs, China, Cost of goods, Economic losers, Economy, Farmers, Investors, Supply chains, Tariff, Trade risk, U.S., Uncertainty
Wall Street Journal (April 27)
“With the comeback in financial markets this year, we probably should have seen it coming. But the headline rebound in first quarter growth to 3.2% reported Friday is still a pleasant surprise that shows again that the U.S. economy is remarkably resilient when government doesn’t get in the way.”
Tags: Comeback, Economy, Financial markets, Government, Q1, Rebound, Resilient, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (April 7)
“Friday’s solid labor report out to ease fears that the U.S. Economy is skidding toward recession…While growth has cooled, neither recession nor runaway inflation appear imminent.”
Reuters (March 25)
“Downbeat data from the US and Europe, combined with a cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, frightened investors last week. The first inversion in the US bond yield curve since 2007 also heightened concerns, by raising fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy.”
Reuters (February 28)
“Factory activity in China contracted to a three-year low in February as export orders fell at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis, highlighting deepening cracks in an economy facing weak demand at home and abroad.”
Tags: China, Cracks, Economy, Exports, Factory, Financial Crisis, Orders, Weak demand
South China Morning Post (January 22)
“Trump’s aggressive trade actions have also made investors much more sensitive to China’s domestic economic woes, a development which Trump doubtless views as a sign that his administration is winning the trade war but which has backfired due to the adverse spillover effects on America’s economy and markets…. A trade truce, should one materialise, has come too late.”
Tags: Aggressive, Backfired, China, Economy, Investors, Markets, Sensitive, Trade war, Truce, Trump, U.S.
Bloomberg (December 21)
With China’s economy seemingly destined to become the world’s biggest, government missteps look increasingly likely to derail the benefits that would otherwise accrue. “Chief among these self-inflicted wounds would be closing the country to foreign investment, extending state control of the economy and adopting an adversarial relationship with neighboring nations. Ominously, the country seems to doing all of these now, to one extent on another.”
Tags: Adversarial, China, Derail, Economy, Foreign investment, Government, Missteps, World's biggest