Fortune (July 1)
“Consumer spending is weakening. The job market is getting worse for workers. And U.S. stock investors are loving it. The S&P 500 rose 0.52% yesterday, hitting an all-time high for the second day in a row.” The surging market suggests “investors don’t anticipate anything dramatic like a mass selloff.” Their optimism seems to be pinned on hopes that “the deteriorating macro picture” will convince the Federal Reserve to “cut interest rates sooner rather than later. And cheap money is usually good for stocks.”
Tags: All-time high, Consumer spending, Fed, Investors, Job market, Mass selloff, Optimism, S&P 500, Stocks, Surging, U.S., Weakening, Workers
USA Today (June 22)
“The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend could ratchet up the pressure on an American economy that’s turned increasingly fragile as a weekslong global trade war takes a toll.” The new foray “is most likely to impact oil prices, investors said, which could ripple through the economy by causing higher transportation and gas prices, just as overall inflation throughout the economy has seemed to be contained.”
Tags: Attack, Economy, Foray, Fragile, Gas prices, Impact, Inflation, Investors, Iran, Nuclear sites, Oil prices, Ripple, Trade war, Transportation, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (June 20)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “offered nothing to hint at a July rate reduction, and investors eyed September as the earliest possible resumption of rate cuts paused earlier this year. With most relevant data still to come, it made little sense for the Fed chair to commit to a specific course of action.” The Fed is waiting to see “the aftereffects” of Trump’s tariffs. “Most economists expect tariffs to lift prices over the coming months, and that is a worry for the Fed because officials still don’t feel as if they completely vanquished inflation after a three-year-long fight.”
Tags: Aftereffects, Data, Economists, Fed, Inflation, Investors, Powell, Prices, Rate cuts, September, Trump’s tariffs, Waiting
Reuters (June 19)
“Central banks are grappling with elevated uncertainty about economic growth and inflation, complicating decision-making, especially for those trying to calibrate policy as they near the end of their rate-cutting cycles.” The rate uncertainty is in turn “making life hard for investors.” For example, “Norway’s central bank on Thursday gave markets a shock by cutting interest rates, and even the U.S. Federal Reserve is warning not to put much weight on its policy projections.”
Tags: Calibrate, Central banks, Decision-making, Economic growth, Fed, Grappling, Inflation, Investors, Norway, Policy projections, Rate-cutting cycles, U.S., Uncertainty, Warning
Institutional Investor (June 10)
“As the U.S. economy has become a knowledge economy, motivating and engaging talent has only grown in importance given its positive effect on productivity.” But attributes like these “aren’t captured in traditional financial statements.” Since 2020, “the Human Capital Factor” has been quantifying “the link between human capital and future equity value” for investors and has “outperformed the S&P 500 every year since its launch.”
Tags: Attributes, Economy, Engaging, Equity value, Financial statements. 2020, Human Capital Factor, Investors, Knowledge economy, Motivating, Outperformed, Positive effect, Productivity, Quantifying, S&P 500, Talent, U.S.
Reuters (June 9)
“Latin America has emerged as a top investing destination as ongoing wars – both of the military and trade variety – make investors seek options in a region they view as refreshingly untroubled by tariffs and major conflicts.”
Tags: Conflicts, Investing destination, Investors, Latin America. Emerged, Military, Ongoing wars, Options, Region, Tariffs, Trade, Untroubled
Barron’s (June 2)
“China hit back at the U.S. early Monday, disputing President Donald Trump’s accusation that it’s failing to uphold its side of the bargain of the trade agreement reached last month…. The back-and-forth barbs are a bad sign for investors who were hoping that the trade war over tariffs was starting to de-escalate.”
Tags: Accusation, Back-and-forth, Barbs, China, De-escalate, Disputing, Investors, Tariffs, Trade agreement, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
Bloomberg (May 30)
According to respondents in a Bloomberg survey, “the European Central Bank will lower interest rates twice more.” They predicted “quarter-point reductions on June 5 and at September’s meeting, when new quarterly forecasts should shed more light on the effects of US President Donald Trump’s reordering of global trade.” Respondents also cautioned that the ECB “shouldn’t wait too long between those moves or investors will conclude that its easing campaign is already over.” If their predictions hold, the deposit rate would rise to 1.75%, “where the poll sees it settling through the end of 2026.”
Tags: 1.75%, Easing campaign, ECB, Global trade, Interest rates, Investors, June, Predicted, Quarterly forecasts, Reductions, Respondents, September, Trump, U.S.
Fortune (May 24)
“Predictions that the dollar’s dominance will come to an end soon have proliferated since President Donald Trump launched his trade war,” but it’s not so simple. “Assets in other top economies like China, Japan and Europe still aren’t as attractive as those in the U.S.” while potential rivals also “suffer from governance or political headwinds.” Until another currency surmounts these issues, “global investors are faced with the familiar reality that there is still no alternative to the greenback, which has been the currency of choice for international payments and reserves for decades.”
Tags: Alternative, Assets, Attractive, China, Dollar, Dominance, Europe, Governance, Greenback, Headwinds, International payments, Investors, Japan, Political, Predictions, Rivals, Top economies, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
MarketWatch (May 22)
“A soaring 30-year Treasury yield has grabbed the lion’s share of attention lately when it comes to signaling how the U.S. fiscal outlook is rattling investors.” What’s happening in Japan, as bond yields surge, is a “less-talked-about factor weighing on sentiment.” Yields on 30-year JGBs rose “to almost 3.17% on Thursday, the highest in roughly 25 years of record-keeping” while 40-year yields “jumped to 3.67%, the highest level since its inception in 2007.” The “sharply higher yields on Japanese government bonds” may already be enticing “the country’s investors to return home.” It is likely that “the recent selloff in the Japanese bond market may have played at least some role in the Treasury market’s own selloff of the longest-dated government maturity Thursday morning.”
Tags: 3.67%, 30-year, 40 year, Bond yields, Enticing, Fiscal outlook, Investors, JGBs, Rattling, Sentiment, Soaring, Surge, Treasury, U.S.
