Seeking Alpha (December 11)
“As markets gear up for major central bank meetings this week, starting with the Federal Reserve on Dec.12-13, all eyes will closely watch for any change in the policymakers’ tone to predict when rate cuts will begin and by how much.” The consensus is that the Fed keep “federal funds target range steady,” with “rate cuts starting in May.”
Tags: Central bank, Consensus, Federal Reserve, Markets, Meetings, Policymakers, Predict, Rate cuts, Steady
Wall Street Journal (October 31)
“Monetary policy officials are hinting to financial markets that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates—even as the Fed signals that it is too early to declare victory over inflation. Wary investors can only speculate, while market analysts are happy to guess the Fed’s next move.”
Tags: Analysts, Federal Reserve, Financial markets, Hinting, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Monetary policy, Officials, Signals, Speculate, Victory, Wary
New York Times (May 1)
The collapse of First Republic “stopped short of derailing the broader market, with markets focusing instead on corporate profits and the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest rates.”
Tags: Broader market, Collapse, Corporate profits, Derailing, Federal Reserve, First Republic, Interest rates
Market Watch (January 29)
“Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is giving investors another six weeks to envision a future where interest rates start to climb and its balance sheet dramatically shrinks. Expect a lot of swings in markets until then.”
Tags: Balance sheet, Climb, Envision, Federal Reserve, Future, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Powell, Shrinks, Swing
Wall Street Journal (August 28)
“The turmoil in world markets may push back the date the Federal Reserve raises interest rates…. One consequence even in anticipation of the Fed’s move is that investors in emerging markets risk getting caught in a rip tide of liquidity heading back to the U.S.”
Tags: Emerging markets, Federal Reserve, Interest rates, Investors, Liquidity, Markets, Turmoil, U.S.
Institutional Investor (January 29)
“There will be no interest rate increase from the FOMC before December 2015.” Even though the Federal Reserve has indicated a mid-year increase, Institutional Investor believes this will be delayed. Members of the Federal Open Markets Committee “are acutely aware of the asymmetry of risk around the timing of rate hikes. That is, the cost of raising rates too soon—and stifling a domestic-focused, consumer-driven economic recovery—is viewed as considerably higher than the cost of raising rates too late.”
Tags: Asymmetry, Economic recovery, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Increase, Interest rates, Risk, Timing
The Economist (July 19)
The weak recovery continues in the U.S. with many economists estimating potential growth of 1.75%-2.0%. “Evidence is mounting that America’s potential growth rate has plummeted…. Solving the short-term problem means boosting demand, so the Federal Reserve should keep interest rates low. But to pep up long-term growth, America also needs to address the supply side. In particular, it needs more workers and faster increases in productivity.”
Tags: Federal Reserve, Growth, Interest rates, Productivity, Recovery, U.S., Weak, Workers
Wall Street Journal (January 26, 2014)
As the Federal Reserve begins tapering, we’ll see which emerging markets have “been swimming naked.” During the days of easy money, nearly anybody could enjoy the party. Now we’ll see which countries squandered the opportunity and left themselves exposed. “The end of Ben Bernanke’s Fed tide will have its uses if it spurs the kind of tax, trade and investment reforms that have been put off in too many places. The question is how much damage will be done as this global adjustment takes place.”
Tags: Ben Bernanke, Damage, Easy money, Emerging markets, Exposed, Federal Reserve, Global adjustment, Investment, Opportunity, Reforms, Squandered, Tapering, Tax, Trade, U.S.
The Economist (November 23, 2013)
Impatient with European dithering, “the Federal Reserve will soon publish rules governing the operations of big foreign banks that will, in effect, throw up a wall around America’s financial markets.” This is understandable, but likely to lead badly as the Europeans retaliate with their own restrictions, fragmenting the global banking system. Instead, “America should give global banking rules—and Europe’s dilatory regulators—one last chance.”
Tags: Europe, Federal Reserve, Financial markets, Global banking rules, Regulators, Restrictions, Retaliation
Euromoney (November Issue)
“Janet Yellen is eminently well qualified to lead the Federal Reserve. But investors should not assume that continuation of policy as normal comes without risk. Her dovish stance on inflation is worth noting and hedging against.”
Tags: Dovish, Federal Reserve, Hedging, Inflation, Investors, Janet Yellen, Policy, Qualified, Risk
