New York Times (March 23)
“Investors in the futures market had expected the Fed to cut rates up to six times this year, but have recently come around to the central bank’s view that only three cuts are more likely. It hasn’t seemed to matter for the stock market’s barnstorming rally.”
Tags: Central bank, Fed, Futures, Investors, Rally, Rates, Stock market, Three cuts
Reuters (February 15)
“Japan’s journey back to normality has just taken an unwelcome turn. The world’s third-largest economy in U.S. dollar terms ceded the title to Germany on Thursday” as Japan simultaneously slipped into a recession. “More unnerving is a slew of weak data making it harder for the Bank of Japan to justify hiking rates and officially ending its era of ultra-easy monetary policy.”
Tags: BOJ, Economy, Germany, Japan, Monetary policy, Normality, Rates, Recession, Third-largest, U.S., Unnerving, Uultra-easy, Weak data
USA Today (January 2)
“The post-COVID-19 economy was finally supposed to stop defying gravity and topple into a recession this year.” While “growth is expected to slow… other factors are likely to keep the economy afloat, forecasters say, including near-record home and stock prices, a further easing of inflation to or near the Fed’s 2% goal and the central bank’s tentative plans to cut interest rates more sharply than previously anticipated.”
Tags: Easing, Economy, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Interest, Post-Covid, Rates, Recession, Record, Slow, Stock prices
Washington Post (December 2)
“The debate now is when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. Stocks ,, come by May. That would certainly help the housing market, which has frozen with mortgage rates at the highest levels in about two decades.”
Tags: Betting, Cutting, Debate, Fed, Frozen, Highest, Housing market, Interest, Investors, Mortgage rates, Rallying, Rates, Stocks
Wall Street Journal (June 16)
“In just 24 hours this past week the central banks of the world’s three biggest economic blocs came to starkly different conclusions, with the eurozone raising rates, the U.S. on hold and the Chinese cutting. It’s getting harder for investors to understand the global economy—and potentially getting harder for the Federal Reserve to put a lid on inflation.”
Tags: Biggest, Central banks, China, Conclusions, Cutting, Different, eurozone, Fed, Global economy, Hold, Inflation, Investors, Raising, Rates, U.S.
New York Times (February 2)
The “disconnect” between cautious Fed statements and “investor expectations” is rooted in the tension between current data and projections. “Many forecasters expect the labor market, as well as inflation in many kinds of services, to weaken this year as the full effect of the Fed’s rate moves plays out; the Fed, on the other hand, is waiting for clearer signs in the data.”
Tags: Data, Disconnect, Expectations, Fed, Forecasters, Inflation, Investor, Labor market, Projections, Rates, Services, Tension
Wall Street Journal (January 10)
“Based on the growth of the money supply, Japan clearly fails to qualify as ultra-loose. On the contrary, it has been ultra-tight for decades.” Based on the quantity theory of money and Milton Friedman’s insights, “that tightness put Japan right where anyone… would expect: with ultra-low inflation.” That’s right, “Japan’s ultra-low inflation rates have been the result of ultra-tight, not ‘ultra-loose,’ monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s attraction to this fallacy has resulted in Japan’s lost decades.”
Tags: BOJ, Fallacy, Friedman, Growth, Japan, Lost decades, Monetary policy, Money supply, Rates, Ultra-loose, Ultra-low inflation, Ultra-tight
CNN (September 29)
“Mortgage rates surged for the sixth week in a row, moving closer to 7%. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.70% in the week ending September 29, up from 6.29% the week before…. That’s the highest level since July 2007.” Amid soaring inflation and aggressive moves by the Fed, “mortgage rates have more than doubled since the start of this year.”
Tags: 30-year, 7%, Aggressive, Doubled, Fed, Fixed-rate, Highest, Inflation, Mortgage, Rates, Surged
Bloomberg (August 19)
“The US mortgage industry is seeing its first lenders go out of business after a sudden spike in lending rates, and the wave of failures that’s coming could be the worst since the housing bubble burst about 15 years ago.” Though a “systemic meltdown” is not expected, market watchers still anticipate “a string of bankruptcies broad enough to trigger a spike in layoffs in an industry that employs hundreds of thousands of workers, and potentially an increase in some lending rates.”
Tags: Bankruptcies, Failures, Housing bubble, Industry, Layoffs, Lenders, Market, Mortgage, Rates, Spike, Systemic meltdown, U.S.
Bloomberg (June 15)
The Federal Reserve “must do more than raise rates by 75 points.” It needs to “regain control of the inflation narrative to avoid inflicting more economic damage and to restore its credibility.”
Tags: 75 points, Credibility, Economic damage, Fed, Inflation narrative, Raise, Rates, Regain control, Restore