Market Watch (March 1)
“Market participants came into 2024 looking for six or more quarter percentage point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but now see only three. They should further revise that all the way down to zero,” based on a note, released Friday, from Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist.
Tags: 2024, Apollo Global Management, Economist, Fed, Interest rate cuts, Market, Note, Participants, Quarter percentage point, Six, Slok, Three, Zero
The Economist (June 4)
“For the past two years Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has pursued a zany policy of trying to bring down inflation by making borrowing cheaper. It is precisely the opposite of what any mainstream economist would advise, and it was never going to work.” His new cabinet “includes Mehmet Simsek, a voice of economic orthodoxy.” The new treasury and finance minister has said “Turkey has no choice left but to return to a rational basis” for policymaking. “Such words will be music to the ears of many foreign investors, who have given up on Turkey over the past couple of years. But they will not count for much unless they are backed up by concrete steps to fix the country’s economy.”
Tags: Borrowing, Cabinet, Cheaper, Economist, Erdogan, Finance Minister, Inflation, Mainstream, Orthodoxy, Policy, Rational, Simsek, Treasury, Turkey
Washington Post (November 19)
“In 1798, British economist Thomas Malthus forecast that an increasing population would soon outstrip, disastrously, nature’s capacity to feed so many people…. And yet here we are: The world’s population has octupled since Malthus’s day, more than doubled since 1968, and living standards around the world have vastly, though unevenly, improved during that time.” It is worth celebrating November 15, the day “Planet Earth welcomed its eight-billionth living inhabitant.”
Tags: 1798, Celebrating, Earth, Economist, Forecast, Inhabitant, Living standards, Malthus, Nature’s capacity, Octupled, Outstrip, Population
Bloomberg (January 10)
Today’s “easy-money policies” appear to be “setting up global markets for the next Minsky Moment.” If economist Hyman Minsky is right and the modern “economic cycle is driven more by surges in the banking system and in the supply of credit,” we can expect a tremendous crash when it ultimately comes.
Fortune (December 5)
“The chances of the U.K. canceling Brexit have just shot up.” JP Morgan economist Malcolm Barr told clients, “the chances of no Brexit had doubled from 20% to 40%, the chances of the U.K. leaving the EU without a deal had halved from 20% to 10%, and the chances of an ‘orderly negotiated Brexit’ were down from 60% to 50%.”
Washington Post (September 16)
Acknowledging he was tainted, Lawrence Summers withdrew from consideration for appointment as Federal Reserve chairman. Global markets surged as the dovish Janet Yellen now looks better positioned to win the influential post. “Shed no tears” for Larry. “Though brilliant, the Harvard economist has nonetheless ticked off too many people in his long and brash career, not only on policy grounds but also because of his famously caustic personality. Note to future careerists: Niceness counts.”
Tags: Career, Chairman, Economist, Federal Reserve, Global markets, Harvard, Janet Yellen, Lawrence Summers, Niceness, Personality, Policy