Investment Week (December Issue)
“Quantitative forecasts are based on probability models that cannot help but assume the future will be correlated to the past, and qualitative scenarios are based on, well, a combination of experience and common sense. Either way, most methodologies it would seem leave little room for discussion of true outliers and surprises.”
Tags: Forecasts, Future, Outliers, Probability models, Qualitative scenarios, Quantitative, Surprises
Institutional Investor (August 21)
Black swan events “will continue to jolt global markets. But when even the best of human forecasters struggle to predict with accuracy the outcomes of these events, how can pension plans, for example, effectively make decisions to better weather the volatility that follows.” Big data may hold the key. “Using big data to track media sentiment, volume, tone and correlation can help institutional investors understand the diffusion of ideas and outliers that can serve as clues for unexpected risk.”
Tags: Accuracy, Big Data, Black swan, Correlation, Diffusion, Forecasters, Global markets, Human, Jolt, Outcomes, Outliers, Pension plans, Sentiment, Unexpected risk, Volatility
